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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slipnsip who wrote (9338)	7/8/1998 3:16:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 164684

To review a bit.. Message 5096946 To: jawd (8761) From: Dwight E. Karlsen Saturday, Jul 4 1998 2:41AM ET Reply # 8764 of 9345 ..."Senario #1: Now if the stock follows through with more gains on Mon thru Wed of next week, the "new" slope of the 5 day ema will put us close to 136, ñ 1 point by Wednesday....I personally think that the 140 area, ñ a few points is the peak for AMZN in this tech rally cycle, if it even makes it there. If insiders and other big sellers begin dumping this pup prior to then, then we may not make 140... ...Extension of senario #1: If we keep rallying early next week to hit that 136 number or thereabouts, then I think the stock will almost certainly fall back to the slope of the original 5 day ema, which would will be about 124, or where we are now. Key point: At that point, the new 5 day EMA will be broken. This is a bad sign, technically speaking for a stock like this." ---------- Okay, so it is senario #1. However, the rally was so incredibly fast (1 day instead of the 2 or three I was giving it) that the 5 day ema didn't have a chance to get dragged up as far as I thought, and is right now at close to 121...so as of right now the 5 day ema is not broken. However, such a sharp rise Monday followed by the heavy down-draft Tuesday makes today a very large "bearish engulfing" candle, in candlestick-speak. "Engulfing" of course means that today's close was lower than yesterday's low (and everyone that bought into yesterday's "rally", is now losing money. welcome to the club.) What to do? Tomorrow the odds favor at least intraday piercing below the 5 day ema, so at least this one TA indicator would now favor the bears, if we close lower tomorrow. The broader tech market looks like it wants to go down here, so perhaps that will help convince internet longs to continue "profit-taking".