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To: TREND1 who wrote (36031)	7/8/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: johnlea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

this is interesting (and more than just a little perplexing). amat down 1, mot down as much as 2, but the rest of the industry is by and large on the up side. we are just entering earnings season and the naz is considering closing at an all time high, the s&p500 sets a new high almost everyday, and the dow isn't far behind. 1/3 of all s&p500 companies gave warnings this quarter, so companies should now easily be able to meet or beat these lowered expectations and the markets seem very willing to applaud these great performances with more double digit percentage stock increases (so what if the revised earnings are negative or 6% growth). thank god for liquidity and a little irrational exuberance.

To: TREND1 who wrote (36031)	7/8/1998 2:17:00 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

PROBABILITIES OF A DAY TRADER (1) It is 1 hour and 50 to end of trading day (2) Question ? Is MU going stay below 27 1/4 (3) See below: (4) MU would have to have an INSIDE DAY....8% chance ! (5) MU would have to have (HIGH-LOW) < 1 .....25% chance (6) Conclusion...good chance MU will break above 27 1/4 befor day's end...but not certain ! Larry Dudash DATE= 07-08-1998 TIME= 11:08:50 END TOTAL DAYS STUDIED= 48 DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE PERCENT= 0 YO > YH-1 06/19/98 23.50 24.25 23.00 23.38 YO > YH-1 06/23/98 24.06 24.81 23.63 24.44 YO > YH-1 07/02/98 26.19 26.19 25.38 25.94 PERCENT= 6 SAME HIGH 04/29/98 30.50 30.75 29.50 30.44 SAME HIGH 05/01/98 31.13 31.38 30.31 31.25 SAME HIGH 05/08/98 31.06 32.00 30.50 32.00 PERCENT= 6 SAME LOW 07/06/98 25.94 26.31 25.38 26.12 PERCENT= 2 INSIDE DAY 05/18/98 27.13 27.94 26.44 27.00 INSIDE DAY 05/21/98 26.50 26.56 25.63 25.75 INSIDE DAY 06/29/98 25.81 26.19 25.19 25.63 INSIDE DAY 07/08/98 26.81 26.88 26.38 26.69 PERCENT= 8 HIGH-LOW <1 05/13/98 30.00 30.06 29.31 29.50 HIGH-LOW <1 05/14/98 29.00 29.00 28.38 28.56 HIGH-LOW <1 05/21/98 26.50 26.56 25.63 25.75 HIGH-LOW <1 05/26/98 26.00 26.38 25.44 25.56 HIGH-LOW <1 05/29/98 23.94 24.38 23.50 23.56 HIGH-LOW <1 06/03/98 22.81 23.31 22.38 22.50 HIGH-LOW <1 06/05/98 23.75 24.38 23.63 24.06 HIGH-LOW <1 06/08/98 24.13 25.00 24.06 24.75 HIGH-LOW <1 07/01/98 25.25 26.06 25.19 26.00 HIGH-LOW <1 07/02/98 26.19 26.19 25.38 25.94 HIGH-LOW <1 07/06/98 25.94 26.31 25.38 26.12 HIGH-LOW <1 07/08/98 26.81 26.88 26.38 26.69 PERCENT= 25

To: TREND1 who wrote (36031)	7/8/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: Bipin Prasad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

I don't mean to hurt anybody's feelings. So sorry to butt in. I know it's none of my business, but Skeeter might appreciate it if you leave him alone until he wants to come back. We all make good/bad calls from time to time. later, InSook

To: TREND1 who wrote (36031)	7/8/1998 6:23:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

larry, the bear view is that fundamentals will continue to be bad until mu is dangerously low on cash. it may even file chapter 7 or 11 ala zenith. the stock price will follow and has been bearish for years. a high of $95 to now below $30. there will be unpredictable noise - especially in light of a manic bull market. each high has been lower and each low has been lower sans one very quick drop to the teens. many bulls have lost money and many more will.