Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (59504)	7/8/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: Burt Masnick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jim - My views on Intel. 1) Industry leader in top end (Merced though vaperware today) 2) Industry leader in high end (Xeon real today) 3) Industry leader in mid-range (P-II) 4) Stumbled on low end (Celeron though recovery very likely) 5) Tends to meet design AND production commitments 6) Management somewhat insensitive to customers (high-handed at times) 7) Brilliant on execution of production plans 8) Fine engineering staff 9) Overall management grade A- (tarnished by Celeron but recovering) 10) Stock price exuberantly overbid about 12-9 months ago given top line and bottom line problems. Bottom line - Whereas there was a period when you could buy INTC at virtually any price and be confident in market growth, profit growth (top line and bottom line) picture changes approximately 15-12 months ago with triple problems of low cost PCs, passable competition and Asian debacle. So now, depending on your time frame, you probably have to pick your spots to get in and get out. BUT if Big Silicon comes true and high bandwidth makes it into the home, both top line and bottom line growth will take off again. And the stock price will follow north. Your questions are if and when, because of when you got in. WRT AMD, it's a company that's hard to love. Consistently poor decisions by Board of Directors (those decisions do matter), sometimes less than forthcoming with investors, a business plan that's fairly scary (let's take on the giant in the industry and really annoy him), and a history of execution problems that's mighty long. Executives running away, manufacturing funnies BUT finally some product that is at least adequate for its time and market. I view AMD as a volatile trading stock but a company quite prone to errors that it's hard to be confident that they can get it right year after year. And they don't have the luxury of mistakes. As has been pointed out, if you were real smart AND real nimble you could have made good money at various times in the 60s, 70s and early 80s betting BRIEFLY on competitors of IBM but for the whole period IBM was the way to go. That leaves NSM and others. What can I say. NSM might canibalize AMD a bit but quirky execution not encouraging. I personally think that Asia gets better about 18 months out(Japan gets worse, Indonesia blows up and finally some common sense kicks in), PC volume goes through the roof this Christmas, bandwidth finally comes into the home (cable and ADSL) and the Y2K problem forces people to abandon them 486 PCs. Finally, Intel and the microprocessor ain't IBM and the PC (Who could possibly successfully compete with ME). Things certainly may not go the way I see it, but that's the way I'm betting. Good investing, Burt