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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (2327)	7/8/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Rick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

I think the takeover speculation is more than wishful thinking. It is really based on the idea that in the long run the industry will consolidate into a few major enterprise players with comprehensive offerings (SAP, PeopleSoft, Oracle). This is driven by economies of scale, customers demanding tighter integration of disparate departmental apps, and customer preference (all other things equal) for fewer vendor relationships. I don't think Vantive will ever regain it's footing as a strong growth story, but I think it's a good trade, primarily based on takeover possiblities. I think that if Vantive wants to be acquired, then a deal could be done with PeopleSoft or Oracle (I don't know enough about SAP, and agree that NETA is highly improbable) with a 50% premium to current price. If you don't believe they can do a deal with ORCL or PSFT in the next 6 months then I don't think it is a justifiable buy due to uncertainties of its growth going forward. Rick. P.S. I don't buy the "execution" B.S. Bottom line is that fewer customers than expected bought the product. Whether that's due to improved competitors products, slowing customer demand, or Luongo's horoscope, I wouldn't place any faith on the idea that a management reshuffling or improved saleperson training is going to have any significant impact.