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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (34101)	7/8/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571169

Kash, re:ASP's I think you can make a case that ASP's will increase in Q3 While there was good unit growth in Q2, too much of the product was K6. There is probably a lot of inventory of this product in the system, and their ASP's are probably less than $70. 2.2M K6 units at $70 and 0.5M units K6-2 at $130 fits the Q2 numbers. (Just my guesses, though). The system will probably flush out the K6's in some real cheap boxes. I think there is a market for the K6-2's. Clearly Compaq, IBM and HP would prefer these in their low end product. If AMD were to only sell 4M units but change the mix to say 1M K6's and 3M K6-2's, I think the ASP would grow. Even if the K6 sold for $60, and the K6-2 for $120, that would raise the ASP to $105. It would also generate $420M CPU revenues. The ASP's may be somewhat lower, but it looks like the product mix going forward is the real key.

To: kash johal who wrote (34101)	7/8/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: StockMan	Respond to of 1571169

kASH, Re -- AMD could easily see the loss increasing next quarter.. Yeah, but the Q after that they will be profitable as will they be next year. Stockman

To: kash johal who wrote (34101)	7/9/1998 3:20:00 AM
From: Trey McAtee	Respond to of 1571169

kash-- the clone shops are always a pretty good indicator of what is selling. from my own research last week, everyone is buying either AMD or INTC. few are buying NSM chips and winchip was for the most part a no show, as in no one is carrying them. good luck to all, trey

To: kash johal who wrote (34101)	7/9/1998 2:26:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571169

kash, re:<Q3 ASP and K6 volume> if AMD builds 5M K6's next quarter... but only sell 3M of them AMD would not build that many unless at least 2 new Tier 1's were added, and in that case the market could soak them up. For those who didn't hear CC, the goal is 3.2 to 3.7M K6's with an ASP of at least $100. From the various percentages and info given in the CC, here's what the product breakdown was 0.35æ K6 - 1.50M units @ $63 0.25æ K6 - 0.62M units @ $102 0.25æ K62- 0.55M units @ $119 (CPG revenues were 224M before returns of $4M K5) (Above table based on statement that 0.25µ ASP was significantly above $100.) Clearly the transition to 0.25 occurred too late and noone wanted the K6-233 and K6-200 anymore (imagine what the ASP of a Cyrix PR200 must be!). There is no such product transition issue in Q3. Both AMD and Intel will be coming out with higher speeds, but an ASP of $100 seems achievable, if not in the bag. Intel will not sell a significant number of CPU's (comparable to 3.5M) at $125 or less. 3.5M units @ $100 = $350M, a jump of $130M. If other units hold their own, this is enough to show a small profit in Q3. Petz