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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (47455)	7/8/1998 10:32:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Patrick, Your physchological explanation seems good to me at first blush. I don't understand this market screaming to new highs. I never did dump my OEX puts. I figured out what I would get, less commissions and determined it was best to let it ride. In any event, you can imagine at the time I considered this there wasn't much left. Now there is even less. I know I need one hell of a pullback to get some dollars back. For me, I have already mentally written them off as a complete loss. The key to me in thinking that this market is about to turn over, is that my gutt is telling me to get long! If I had a bunch more capital and a little less hesitation at this point with real dollars, I would buy calls for the run to 580. This tells me we are very close to the top! How is that for backwards thinking? Anyway, I think the Fed adding liquidity has a great deal to do with this. I would love to be able to study this concept more, but believe that Gersh (hope I did not mistate your opinion) is correct and when the Fed adds liquidity the market rocks. Apparently they are about done with their liquidity additions. The chances of a huge dump, in my opinion, is about zero. However, (don't you love how I couch everything to cover both sides!) because it seems to me everyone of average persuasion is flat out bullish maybe the dump will come. I don't hear of a July correction from any camp. I hear an Aug maybe, buy definitely by the end of the year. Why not July? Especially if everyone is thinking the fall. I don't know. Well, I still think my puts are toast. I think we may see a downside to 550 OEX, but not much more. Wish I was playing the mini with real money...that would be a very nice downside move. I am thinking I am about ready to pull a Jerry as well. Sick and tired of being on the wrong side when real bucks are at stake. Hopefully not trading with real money for a while will get my mind-set where it ought to be. For now, I am just flat out frustrated, fed-up and tired. -Scott

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (47455)	7/8/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: WBendus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Patrick, "I know I sound a lot like I'm counting a lot on psychology here but market psychology is important once the ball gets rolling in one direction or another. The entire rationale for it continuing up at this stage has to be momentum based and that is psychology." I think we will be very lucky to see a pull back of even 3% when this market does eventually put in some sort of a top. Japan is attempting to fix itself, albeit with rather helter skelter press announcements about tax cuts. Europe is going very strong, with exception to the currency problems that Russia is having. Earnings warnings are well out of the way and the yen/dollar appears to be stabilizing. Rates backing off to 5.7 on the long bond may give us some resistance, but I fear that the semis will be the next leg of this rally. Breadth has really improved since last month and I think that the mutual funds must be sitting on piles of cash. After raising cash in early June, and re-deploying parts of it to dress up for quarters end, together with continued inflows should leave them a lot left over considering the volume that we have seen. Heavier volume would lead me to believe that most of the money had been put back to work, but the volume it is just not there. Is wish I had the data to do a money flow study on the S&P to see if my theory could be supported. This market has been extremely difficult for me to grasps lately. The one thing that I noticed this afternoon, was that there was not 200 point run up on the Spoos at the close. The past couple of days have seen massive run ups in the Spoos right on the close. Perhaps that might be a very early indication that the rally is running a little tired. I just suspect that it will not take long for it to catch its breath. Wayde

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (47455)	7/9/1998 8:12:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Patrick, >>>> I know I sound a lot like I'm counting a lot on psychology here but market psychology is important once the ball gets rolling in one direction or another <<<<<< Well, it sure aint the technicals which is keeping this rally moving up with weak market internals and this rally not being that broadbased(RUT not participating, at least not yet). I thought it was very interesting that CNBC reported that there were 2 BUY programs, but no SELL programs yesterday. We are only about 50 points away from the closing high in the DOW and I feel that is where the Big Boys want us to go, so the market then can be sold at that level. Obviously the short-term technicals are severely overbought, but when the market is moving or pschology or helium or whatever picking the top is a guess. Seeya