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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: George Mc Geary who wrote (18860)7/9/1998 2:44:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Respond to of 50167
 
George-- I agree with this post- It looks no big deal to beat the lowered expectations and look like a hero.However such are the vagaries of market that you cannot justify certain moves on fundamentals alone. Lot of hoarse voices have come and disappeared calling these markets as biggest hoax, but consequently we have seen astronomical heights reached by all these intranet stocks this is the power of leverage. I have always justified whenever I argued my long case against chronic shorts that one cannot justify markets and companies alone on earnings. Although earnings are a definite part of the game plan I would like to have a global picture of the 'huge amount of speculative money' that is after new opportunities. As far as we remain within 22-24 time earning band with long term interest rate picture heading lower as it look likes presently and the economy stays strong with steady inflation most of these companies will do certainly well in such an environment earning prospects will look good. In case of MOT what price one would put on Iradium possibilities--coming soon, the economic revival in Japan and growth in global trade will all help MOT bottom lines, it may drift to 45 but there it looks terribly cheap, it is the revenues which one should keep an eye also, income or eps can suffer but a huge revenue is in itself is an attractive plus.

Company may have temporary problems in delivering the bottom line increases that one likes to have but so far MOT shareholders have patiently waited for rewards the stock has been stuck in a range for number of years. It is still trading at 55 not 110? although in last couple of years the revenue has sharply gone up. Undoubtedly they have the right products for global markets as the world moves into 21st century, it is these products and their potential one is betting on. It is for this reason that utilities with high yield do not attract speculative money whereas semis do, it is search for MSFT's of future but I am very satified when I see self correcting systems where excesses are duly punished. MOT is a growth play and Con-Edison is an income play they have nothing else but regulated electricity to offer but MOT has products that are going to be in dmeand at much higher rate than what we see them now.It is this prospect that a 10$ hype is justified in the price.

One need to follow the trend, the market is telling us something. When one overlooks fudmentals he would make all wrong kind of judgements like shorting the market when it was rebounding off the 200 days MA on composite. The issue here is to make a game plan and get into the momentum side of the market but keep a very close eye on the economic fundamentals and critical supports.Like I avoided to get on the momentum side in itranets but I will certainly not sit on side line if I see INTC TXN and MOTS with huge potential going cheaply, in my opinion these stocks at 62 45 and 45 repctively will create huge interest. It is the future income stream one bets on and even if present looks uncertain the future stream is attractive enough to encourage investors to stay invested even on doom and gloom of experts like Kurlack.

It is not about managing company earning announcements it is about delivering top line- bottom line increases, fortunately in my opinion top line MOT deccrease in face of ASEA was not that bad. For me market is not about having my own opinions interposed on markets short or long - it is all about market perception- look at the markets and do what they are telling you. When 1918 is taken out we know it it is going higher that is what I have been seeing for long. Now, if 1921 support is broken and 1900 is taken out we need to immediately raise alert and trade different kind of instruments.

Keep an eye on SOX 248 and PSE 348 alongwith 1918 or 1910 within these levels one can play but in my opinion we may see 2050 on composite before we see 1715 again.