To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (941 ) 7/11/1998 2:11:00 AM From: wonk Respond to of 3178
Frank: I believe the goals expressed in the FSAN architecture section are exactly the right goals.But what I am saying is that perhaps the FUD factor in some subliminal way is behind the slow acceptance of the ideas which would foster greater acceptance of over-the-air interfaces. In other words, "preordained directions will prevail, in any event, so why bother?" is how I think many BOCsters feel. And who more than the BOCs could add impetus to the wireless regimen, in such a way that all others would be forced to follow? While my comments were directed towards the IXC's propensity, or lack thereof, to deploy wireless network access solutions, I think the same thing could be said for the RBOCs. I am confident that they have reviewed the technology; it does work (the MMDS/video model is a totally different kettle of fish) and technology concerns are not the reason for lack of deployment by the majors. While the IXCs were looking for a magic bullet, the LECs are looking to maintain -- as long as possible -- their private toll road. (Excuse the mixed metaphor) If they were to aggressively deploy new access technologies, be it terrestrial broadband wireless, satellites or cable networks, they validate alternative access methods, jump start the drive down the cost curve and basically devalue their monopoly asset, the copper loops. Will they deploy alternatives? Absolutely, when the cost of not doing so, exceeds the profits made by continuing to milk the existing assets. I do not believe there is anything evil here, its just good business provided it is done within the framework of the Act and the antitrust laws and that's what the courts are for. <g> Just three short years ago, IMO, the LECs were preparing to raid both the broadcast video business and each others territories. The 96 Act totally changed everything. The Act forced them back into a group hug because the easier pickings are in LD, a true commodity business. Even if they lose every court case, they will be in LD in probably no more than two years. If SNET's performance in Connecticut is replicated across the board, it will be a bloody. Finally, I don't hear too much about FTTC anymore. Everyone I've ever spoken to who has insight into the financial models say the numbers don't work. That is why I draw a distinction between business and residential network access architecture. Business will get broadband, however it is delivered, soon. Residential broadband is much tougher. I don't, off hand, have the url (I know it was discussed on Last Mile ) but last year Pepco and RCN announced a joint venture to do a residential fiber deployment in Washington, DC. They committed $300 million to do it. I do not remember if that was just the city proper or if it included the suburbs as well. Nevertheless, multiply that across the top 50 MSAs and you have quite a bill, especially compared to the yearly capital budget of any single regional LEC or IXC. Whatever happens in residential, it won't be the ideal of universal service exemplified in the seal on the floor in Basking Ridge. (While we are all fighting for our share of the market dollar, its nice to think that everyone has telecom service at a reasonable price. Though not and RBOC fan per se, in almost all of the arguments about being the provider of last resort, the LECs are dead on.) So to close this rambling, perhaps incoherent post, I believe near term deployment of alternative network access methods has nothing to do with technology or long-term initiatives of what the full service network should look like. It has everything to do with the immediate business and regulatory environment, and the strategic positioning of the combatants. best wishes, ww Sorry again if this has little to do with VoIP.