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To: Pigboy who wrote (59584)	7/9/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Pigboy - Re: Joe ARena & ..."the major catalyst which will propel the industry out of it's doldrums is the conversion to 300mm wafer processing." Yeah, right - all things being equal, converting to 300 mm wafers form 200 mm wafers will take the current excess capacity and INCREASE IT by a factor of 2.25 * (Number 300 mm wafers/200 mm wafers replaced)! The DRAM manufacturers are cutting Back production - and some are leaving the business - TI, Fujitsu. You don't hand a glass of water to a drowning man! Realistically, 300 mm wafer conversions are probably not going to even BEGIN until 2001/2002 time frame - at the earliest. Current excess capacity needs to be ABSORBED before INCREASED capacity is brought on-line. Real cost reductions can be achieved by the continual progression to finer geometries - 0.25 --> 0.18 -->0.15 --0.13 micron, etc., using current 200 mm wafers. Paul