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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6243)	7/9/1998 11:07:00 AM
From: LemurHouse	Respond to of 10921

I dunno -- if we could call 'em like that we'd all be rich, right? Valuations on PLAB and DPMI have been a bit higher than the rest of the semi-equips, presumably due to the fact that people still need to buy masks even in the down turn. DPMI and ETEC are both trading lower today in sympathy with PLAB. I'm starting to like these values, and I actually have small (new) positions in both DPMI and PLAB. But they're not really my thing because I don't see as much potential for explosive growth in the mask companies for when the cycle turns. Not as much as CYMI or NVLS. My main point in my last post is that the market is really down on this sector right now, and I think we'll see overreactions to the down side as companies warn or disappoint on earnings. The blood will really be flowing then, and that'll be the time to buy.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (6243)	7/9/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

In general, over the past few months, sector stocks hammered on earnings have rebounded a point or two almost immediately. This may not apply to PLAB, though, as the market was expecting some earnings consistency and lowered earnings hadn't really been priced into the shares -- i.e., this was really a surprise, unlike say KLIC or AMAT's preannouncement. I'd stay away, to tell you the truth. If you're betting on a recovery and huge gain, you might as well pick a product whose demand (and share price) will go through the roof when the industry starts buying. Which is to say, anyone except mask co's, and possibly co's with strong products outside semi equipment, like Teradyne and Cohu (although they are strong). Also, I personally would watch for companies that might not make it, like IPEC and Brooks, or companies whose technology is suspect or is already losing market share, like IPEC, maybe EGLS or Semitool (whose copper technology seems to be getting shunted off to the side). I don't follow either Electroglass or Semitool so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. But there are ten or fifteen very strong players in the sector, plenty enough for diversity. I'd look for co's with positive earnings during the downturn, just to ensure the R&D money is flowing and there won't be capitalization problems with ramp-up.