To: SecularBull who wrote (50375 ) 7/9/1998 1:57:00 PM From: Dell-icious Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
From today's Thestreet.com: Top Stories: Hard Time for Hardware, by Eric Moskowitz. Here are some excerpts that pertain specifically to DELL: (The full article is at thestreet.com but you need to be a member to access it, though you could be a trial member for 30 days for free). Dell-icious Top Stories: Hard Times for Hardware By Eric Moskowitz Staff Reporter 7/9/98 9:50 AM ET An inventory clearance sale, cliff-diving memory-chip prices and plunging PC average selling prices are conspiring to keep box makers weak as the industry heads into another earnings season and the lean summer months. While these companies should enjoy an initial boost from Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq) Windows 98 release, pricing wars in the consumer market are driving the PC companies to the more lucrative corporate market. "We expect to eventually have 30% of our revenues in the enterprise market," said Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) Chief Financial Officer Tom Meredith during a recent conference call, adding that the company currently gets 11% of its revenue from the enterprise arena. While direct-selling Dell shifts its long-term strategy to remain a step ahead of its competitors, the rest of the box makers have a more pressing concern: clearing out their inventory channels. ... For the direct-sales box makers Dell and Gateway (GTW:NYSE), the outlook is a bit brighter, but these firms aren't immune to the decline in average selling prices either. Dell CFO Meredith, for one, has sought to downplay this free-fall in PC prices: "I'm not a believer in the theory that ASPs are in a death spiral," he has said many times to analysts. The numbers, however, do not lie. The average selling price for the personal computers dropped to $1,221 in May 1998 from $1,537 in May 1997, according to the tech research firm PC Data. Interestingly, box prices over the last month dropped $30, representing a slightly more modest decline than in previous months. At this pace, ASPs should fall below the magic $1,000 level by next March. If anything, both H-P and Compaq have been aggravating the trend. They have sought to grow sales to maintain market share, even at the expense of profitability, says Roger Lanctot, a computer analyst with PC Data. ... While Compaq traditionally opens up the box maker's earnings season, Dell usually closes it -- with a bang. The box maker reports after the close Aug. 18. Analysts expect Dell to earn 46 cents per share, versus 29 cents in its year-ago July quarter. Since the company earned 44 cents in March, it's pretty safe to say that Dell will meet expectations. The test for the company will be whether it can meet the whisper number, yet to be determined. One number to keep an eye on: European sales growth. In the company's July 1 conference call, Meredith hinted that European sales should be "very robust" in the second half of this year due to better-than-expected transactional business in the June quarter. Back in May, International Data Corp. analyst Roger Kay warned that Dell's April quarter would be its last positive one for a while. "ASP declines will finally impact the company's earnings," he warned. Don't be surprised, however, if Dell figures out a way to stay above the curve for a bit longer.