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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (21306)	7/9/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Yes, I said I resemble that remark ;>) I went and found John's post AFTER I wrote mine. I see that it is the same except that he anticipates it will be a slow rise for China. I am thinking less than 5 years, if Taiwan and China are a unit. Japanese protectionism will have had disastrous consequences, and they may not recover in my lifetime. Think of this as a battle of MSFT vs. IBM circa 1990. I don't know how to convey this better, but China's MOMENTUM will carry the day very soon, even though their economic imapct will still be small.....msft is valued at something like 2.5x IBM, even with sales that are ~ 1/6 as great. I also think that it would be a grave long term tactical mistake for China to devalue. They should do whatever they can to avoid it, which will cause them a good deal of short term pain.....they could sell much more now if they devalue. I know they may actually have to if the other shoe drops, but they need to try to take the very long view of damaging Japan's status, while elevating their own. they are attempting to hang on. It is inspirational that they are striving to fulfill their potential, and positioning themselves for economic warfare with Japan.