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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (12161)	7/9/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey, give it away. Sure, Mexico is not too rich. Enough of this constant political, macroeconomic chicanery. I remember being harangued like that, so now it's my turn to do it to you. Getting down to the real nitty gritty, check out today's day trading graph, the volume is nearly back up to 1m shares, with prices rising. Intense little flurries on micro-moves in the price as the computers buy and sell in seconds to each other. Dougjn has missed out on another $1 today. Tomorrow will be more. Momentum is underway, sitting on solid fundamentals. See, the news wires told you - MSM3000 shipping on time and a real little winner. Watch the news again tomorrow - more good Q.com Web feed and as Dougjn, Jeff and their macro, long-term ilk [most of us] think, "Hmmm, The Q does seem to be doing okay and I'd hate to be the guy who missed out after reading acres of raving and actually thinking it is going to finally do it". "And the price is sneaking away from me!!" "And it was $48 - heck, that was nearly $10 ago, I better hurry". "What's that turkey Winn say? $80? Well, it did get to $72 ages ago. And Korea seems to still be there and buying heaps of handsets even though they must nearly all be starved to death now. And maybe Japan can actually afford cdmaOne networks - the article did say they are taking to it like flies to dead meat. That's the second biggest market" "Come to think of it, there are a lot of people in the USA using it and lots more ready to ditch their analog. Ericsson wants it badly. Nokia has got it. Globalstar is ticking away - can't remember what that adds to The Q's bottom line but it must be something. Eudora isn't doing much, but isn't hurting and could be good for those PalmPilot things. Yeah, that new company doesn't sound like a failure - it'll all be cdmaOne. With Q making similar things. Hang on, I'll just check the price again! Hmm, up $2 for the day. Well 31/32 damn them with those fractions. Haven't they heard of decimal currency? Volume over a million! Markets closed now. Damn, I better get in first thing in the morning. Or at least see what it does on the open. I hope they don't announce something good after hours. What's $80 compared with $57 - heck nearly 50%. Even if it only goes back to nearly its high, $72, it would still be better than watching the Fed rot my interest rates and print my money out of business. It might not come back here either - Gregg sure seems to have it pinned down and end of year results are likely to be $3.7bn by the sound of it with decent profits and not much looking bad. Even infrastructure might stop looking like a dodo. I'll check it tomorrow...." So, you worry about Mexico Ramsey, I'll count my paper profits! Heh, heh, heh! Don't forget, sell GSTRF at $72 and buy Q.com at $48. $80 31 July, 21 days to go. Mqurice *off topic* PS: Hey Dougjn, at least you enjoyed Loral at $25! Silly Republican fanatics believed their own propaganda that Bernie Schwartz had gone out in sympathy with Kim Philby and co. [UK spies for the commies] How long are they going to keep trying to find out who Clinton might or might not have done what with whom. Then lied to them about it. "Mr Clinton, have you had sex with this young woman? Come on, answer the question, yes, or no! We demand to know. In fact, we are so nosey that somewhere in the constitution we think we have a right to know. Yes, a right. And we are a VERY GRAND jury. And as OJ knows, Juries are just grand! So what is it? Yes, or no? Excuse me while I wipe the drool off my mouth and pop my tongue back in my mouth! Yes or no? You know Mr Clinton, this great country has standards to keep and we demand to know yours to ensure you are matching the country's standards" Clinton thinks about it. "Hmmm, if I tell them I did feel fond of her - let's face it, the Oval office is a bit dull without some fun and a bit of flirting going on, they'll make a meal of it and what's Hillary going to say? It wasn't really sex and hell, it's none of their damn business anyway." So he says, chin sticking out: "No! I did not have sex with that woman!" Drool flies in all directions and the pack goes baying like hounds after a fox!!! Who quickly goes to ground. Well, it seems to me that if he did lie, it is what you might call a white lie. Didn't Paula's case get biffed out anyway? And that was what it was all about.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (12161)	7/9/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey: You missed my point. Mexican banks are said to hold something approaching $65 billion in bad loans. Now that's a big, dramatic sounding number that makes great press, but you have to understand much more about the nominal hole to draw a conclusion. What are the assets underlying the loans? How badly are they impaired? $65 billion in bad loans does NOT mean that the government has to write a $65 billion dollar check. For example, if a bank has $1mm loan against an office building, and the owner is not current on his payments, this would be considered a "bad" loan (and the entire $1mm would be considered in default). Now, assuming the owner is permanently impaired and cannot bring the loan current, the "hole" is the difference between the building's current market value and the loan value. If the building is remarketable for $900,000, then the bank is out ten cents on the dollar ($100,000) not $1mm. Were this level of impairment typical throughout the economy, then Mexico's $65 billion banking crisis could be resolved by something between $6bb and $10bb. Reporters aren't bankers, so the nuances tend to get lost in the desire to maximize the story's impact. As I suggested before, Japan's banks are dealing with many, many loans where the underlying collateral may be potentially worthless or severely impaired (i.e. Tokyo real estate values have fallen by 70%-80%--so assuming minimal equity and little amortization, the bank could be out a like amount of its loan value). As I said before, the Mexican economy never suffered from the same kind of bubble, nor is there a surfeit of industrial capacity. So, as I said before, the problem is not comparable to the Japanese situation. And, also as I said before, the U.S. government has demonstrated in the past that it cannot, and will not, allow a meltdown of a southern neighbor. Hope this helps you sleep. Best regards, Gregg