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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (2109)	7/9/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

'A nation on the verge of starting something Are the UK's larger firms suffering a bout of over-confidence? There are less than 18 months left - a frightening prospect. Eighteen months ago it was the end of 1996 - Taskforce 2000 had been operating for six months and was into its stride. It was pretty obvious that a Labour government would be elected - I would soon be having discussions with opposition representatives and looking forward to progress. Our perception of time is curious. That period of time has slipped away more quickly than any I have experienced. And I fear that the next 18 months will go even more swiftly. A lot has happened in the world of the 2000 problem. There has been immense progress. But is it enough? Is progress keeping up with rapidly eroding time? I'll look at the evidence in a moment. But, first, what's my instinct? I fear we have not achieved enough and are still falling behind. I'm not alone. The panel of "experts" that provides a monthly review of confidence is equally pessimistic; on a scale where 10 is triumph and one disaster, the UK is at 5.3. Our lowest score ever. There is plenty of harder evidence. The public sector looks bad - epitomised by various reports on the National Health Service. Are other public sector areas really doing better or does the NHS get all the attention? And there has been a lot about the inadequacy of preparation by smaller businesses. But, for me, the key area is big business. A critical factor in my disagreement with the Department of Trade & Industry last summer was my insistence that our priority should be to ensure that big business was really getting the message. If it couldn't get it right, how could we realistically expect others to make it? Well, we have been assured for months - not least by Action 2000 - that larger businesses have it under control; projects are in hand, budgets and staff available. Although, unlike the public sector and small- and medium-sized enterprises, this seems to be based not on proper research, but on what the companies are saying. Perhaps it is wishful thinking. But Computer Weekly had some good news. On 25 June, it ran the headline, "Businesses on target for date race". This was based on responses to a questionnaire from 237 IT directors of major companies. Things were much improved from this time last year. Nearly 30% had started testing. Nearly 80% had progressed beyond assessment. Most were confident. But I thought that, for most large businesses, the job was to be completed by the end of 1998. Yet more than two-thirds have yet to start testing - agreed to be more than 50% of the job. Over 20% had not even started rectification - some consultants insist the job takes two years from thereon. And, if Tony Collins' book Crash is a useful guide, expressions of confidence are often a sure sign that things may be going wrong. Even worse, this survey did not cover problems with embedded microprocessors and supply chains. And, of course, there are the small matters of preparing for economic and monetary union at the same time, staffing problems, etc. If this is the state of our top businesses, how about the other 8,000 organisations employing more than 200 people? There is one other detail: the UK is almost certainly a year 2000 world leader. computerweekly.co.uk