To: goldsnow who wrote (14312 ) 7/9/1998 7:31:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116756
INSIGHT -- Dollar builds momentum versus Europe NEW YORK, July 9 (Reuters) - The dollar had strong technical momentum versus European currencies on Thursday, with the rally led by a sharp spike higher against the Swiss franc to beat five-year highs. The rise in dollar/Swiss to 1.5451 led dollar/mark higher, although some chartists required the pair to close above the August 6 high at 1.5387 on a weekly basis to prove its legs. But dollar/Swiss's move opened up the topside for dollar/mark above 1.8225 as it headed toward the top of a year-long pennant formation at 1.8425/50, said David Solin, partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics. ''The view is if you want to be long dollar/Europe, obviously with Swiss rates so low, that's probably the place to be,'' Solin said. Mark Roberts, technical analyst at I.D.E.A. Inc., called the dollar/Swiss rise the last leg of a year-long irregular correction that could be completed at 1.57 or 1.5750 over the next two weeks, although not in a straight line. Roberts said dollar/mark is not set up for gains of dollar/Swiss magnitude and would probably fall short of the August high atop 1.89. But for the near-term, dollar/mark was poised to extend its run toward 1.86. Meanwhile, some technicians said dollar/yen tempered the upside slope of its contracting triangle as it chipped away above the 141 level. Despite the run higher they expected the broad range to continue for the near-term. ''In the big picture, it's just stuck in these ranges as the market bides time with the election coming out and the market waiting to see if Japan will do anything'' in the way of substantive economic stimulus,'' Solin said. Roberts doubted the triangle pattern, instead focusing on the recent significant high of 141.75 of July 2. Dollar/yen would hit strong resistance there, he said. ''Basically we have a seven-day range and 141.75 is the ceiling. We might push through by 20 ticks but I'm looking for a reversal at that stage,'' Roberts said, adding the move was a consolidation of losses from late June highs above 143 yen. He said the July 1 low of 137.43 provided ''not much support'' and the gap to 133.60 could be filled over the next couple of weeks. At noon, the dollar was higher at 141.25/30 yen from 140.25/35 at the open. It was firm at 1.8298/08 marks from 1.8290/95 but fading at 1.5418/28 Swiss from 1.5450/60. biz.yahoo.com