To: John Carragher who wrote (504 ) 7/9/1998 8:19:00 PM From: Anthony Wong Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1722
SmithKline Tries To Prosper Without Partner After Scuttled Mergers July 09, 1998 12:43 PM By Michael Reid and Lucy Farndon LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Two broken merger plans have British pharmaceuticals maker SmithKline Beecham PLC thinking it might be better off going it alone. The company's chief executive is publicly saying as much, and stock watchers agree the company doesn't have to have a partner to be a good investment. Even without a merger, SmithKline's strong product pipeline should comfort holders, analysts say, and its shares may even be a safe haven if Britain's economy heads into recession. The same analysts also expect SmithKline to continue its long-term outperformance of its London peers based on earnings potential alone. Yet some of the big banks are reluctant to tell their clients to go buy new SmithKline shares, pointing out that the stock's near-term shine has been dulled somewhat by its own recent good fortunes. And they worry that any big gain in SmithKline shares in the days and weeks ahead will be based on market rumors of another merger - and thus be fleeting. SmithKline has spent the past year or so searching for a suitable mate, flirting first with Glaxo Wellcome PLC, then with American Home Products Corp. and then reviving the effort to join up with Glaxo. The Glaxo talks resulted in a $70 billion merger plan in January that was scuttled a few weeks later amid unresolvable conflicts in the executive suite. The consensus thinking now runs something like this: SmithKline Beecham is getting expensive, so it isn't for everybody. But if you already hold it, keep it for what look like guaranteed gains in the long run. Indeed, the stock has climbed 22% in the last five weeks Among the worriers, some brokers are reconsidering their "buy" stances purely on value. Wednesday, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell downgraded SmithKline to "neutral" from "overweight" because of its recent price outperformance and set a 730-pence year-end target. Though growth and defensive shares are likely to be the best performers if the economy slows, "we (still) feel the stock no longer offers value to the shareholder," DMG reasoned. Another analyst at a European investment house agreed that SmithKline shares were "looking fully valued," with a price/earnings ratio now twice the market average. "I wouldn't encourage a buy," he said. Yet the price is still comfortably within the stock's "in-play" range of 740-805 pence seen earlier this year when SmithKline was talking with American Home and Glaxo. There is no denying merger speculation has contributed greatly to SmithKline's recent market performance. And despite repeated denials of a Glaxo merger revival by SmithKline Chief Executive Jan Leschly, market players continue to hold out hope. Last month the market even speculated that Leschly might step aside with a $100 million golden handshake to smooth the path for a fresh attempt at the Glaxo marriage. SmithKline's reaction to that rumor was curt: "It's business as usual. Jan Leschly was at his desk yesterday ... and he's planning to be there today. He has no plans to resign," the company said at the time. Nevertheless, the bid rumors have persisted, and this week there has been talk in London of a possible tie-up with U.S. drug giant Merck & Co. (MRK). SmithKline wouldn't comment specifically on the Merck rumor, but a spokesman said Thursday that "it is highly unlikely that the company will be involved in a merger." "A merger with Merck is extremely unlikely," said the analyst at the European investment bank. He said the speculation has been fueled by Merck's exit of two joint ventures, which left it with a lot of cash: the $2.6 billion sale of its 50% stake in DuPont Merck Pharmaceutical Co. to DuPont Co. (DD) and the exit of the Astra Merck Inc. joint venture with Sweden's Astra AB (A) that is guaranteed to bring Merck billions more. But the unnamed analyst still doesn't think SmithKline is the one for Merck. That doesn't mean there isn't something still afoot at SmithKline, though. Some company watchers are looking for an alliance rather than outright merger. "(SmithKline) has been in play twice that the market knows of, with AHP then with Glaxo, so clearly it is looking for some kind of strategic alliance," said Martin Evans, head of research at brokerage Sutherlands Ltd. "As health-care costs rise, one way to maintain earnings growth at historically high levels is to be highly aggressive in looking to cut costs," Evans added. "The best way to do that is through a merger, where companies can pool their (research and development)." Even if the U.K. company doesn't pool its R&D with another's, it should still be able to get new drugs and treatments to market. "The product pipeline is clearly attractive," Sutherland's Evans said. The company recently described its pipeline as "deep, diversified and innovative." Sales of some new products, such as Parkinson's disease treatment ReQuip and heart drug Coreg, have been more sluggish than anticipated. But diabetes treatment Avandia - currently in late stage, or Phase III, trials - is expected to offset these hiccups. Analysts reckon the drug stands a good chance of getting to market and generating peak sales of over two billion pounds. The drug belongs to a new class of diabetes drugs that reduces blood sugar by enhancing the body's sensitivity to insulin. -By Michael Reid; 44-171-832-8163; mreid@ap.org -By Lucy Farndon; 44-171-832-9643; lfarndon@ap.org Copyright (c) 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.