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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard S. Schoenstadt who wrote (20355)	7/9/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Quad Sevens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

Richard: Full program sales are not 8 times total I&A sales. If TAVA can farm out the other 7/8, that could be great news. That's really the only way to get McTAVA going. Services and materials do not have the gross margins that I&A do, so let the factory guys do the remediation. Little teaser from Jenkins: "At the same time we are beginning to see strong interest in our Y2k product from non-traditional users these opportunities range from application by insurers in portfolio risk assessment to use by global financial institutions to address the Y2k readiness of their building management and security systems" Since TAVA has no experience in these environments, this interest must be in the CD methodology--the highest gross margin item on the TAVA menu. Would be great for TAVA to get some CD sales that are unattached to services. That was the original "big bang" theory for TAVA. Wade

To: Richard S. Schoenstadt who wrote (20355)	7/9/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

Richard, I thought I was agreeing with JDN<G>! Seriously, I like your estimates for revenues. For fiscal Q4, my estimate was: Core business: $9M Y2K Service: $5 to $7M For total revenue of about $14M to $16M for the quarter. But today's PR has an interesting twist. In the PR, TAVA announced that they received $25M in Y2K orders in fiscal Q4. But they also said, quoting: "The orders were split almost evenly in content between tools and services ...". Cheryl has been so kind as to point out several times TAVA's policy for taking orders to revenue. Here is a brief description: exchange2000.com Everyone knows (that bothers to read my posts) that I'm skeptical of the "tools" portion of this PR. I believe that the tools are bundled with the service and not sold separately. I'll be the first to admit this is a critical assumption in my analysis of TAVA. (This is also why I draw a comparison to DDIM.) If this is truly 50% tools, shouldn't we see fiscal Q4 revenues something like this? Core Business: $9M Y2K Service: $6M Y2K Tools: $12.5M (per revenue recognition policy, half of the new orders are for tools) Total Revenues: $27.5M Regards, Bill