Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/9/1998 10:48:00 PM
From: Vartan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, <The fact remains though this is currently a one-way thread.> Not so. I'm trying again to raise my humble voice and, although not as eloquently as some other posters, express an opinion, that AMAT possesses some intangible quality - for some reason Street seems to just like the stock. Like it or not, it can't be discounted, IMO. Whether it's skilled PR, or some other "insider" thing - I have no idea, but seems obvious to me. VH

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/9/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian....... On shorting.... I do and have bought puts on AMAT, but its not for the faint-hearted because the overwhelming bias of the market has been and is to the upside. One day that will change but you would have to be very fortunate to get the exact date right. Now I have been lucky... I didn't lose my shirt, and on balance came away a little ahead, though nothing like the huge profits I made during Amats big 96-97 run. It is simply easier to buy cheap and sell expensive.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/9/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

Brian, BTW, the bears on the thread are not true bears as you stated. If AMAT is going to 12 or even the teens, why aren't you bears shorting? Jacob, Teri, care to answer???? How do you know that the bears are not shorting? Is it really that important to you what someone else's action is? I can't speak for Teri but I would like to post something positive myself, except I have not been able to find any. Dallas Semi did "pretty good". Now is that positive enough? However, I don't follow Dallas and they are a little too small to be influential. It would be of interest to find out if they are a fab or fabless company. If fabless, it further demonstrates what Teri suggested previously that the fabless semi companies are taking advantage of capacity to improve upon their margins. Ramsey

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/9/1998 11:39:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, Looks like you're getting kind of peckish. I agree with you that these aren't true bears, but rather bulls who are trying to avoid getting made into hamburger - me included. Nothing wrong with that. If we were "true bears", then you could be suspicious we were trying to talk the stock down, but you seem to want to criticize us whether we have taken a short position or not. As others have pointed out, this is clearly not a one-way thread, as you continue to claim. Most of us have just reiterated facts that Mr. Morgan himself has stated - and I doubt that he has taken a short position, either. And perhaps more to the point - he ain't buying the stock right now, either! Bob

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/10/1998 12:14:00 AM
From: Robert O	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I'm your huckleberry. Not so much by choice <gulp> (who saw that tech rally coming?) and I find myself on top of a sack-o-puts. I played this game exactly the same way just a short time ago. Loaded up on puts thinking AMAT would miss earnings number last time. You know the tale, price shot up (incomprehensible to me!) and in short order (no pun) my entire position was down over 85%! Since all seemed lost I just stayed put (ugg) and finally mrkt came to its senses. Near nuclear holocaust in India helped already jittery mrkt lower I suspect. To be honest I like AMAT to gamble (given time horizon, gambling's all it is) because of HUGE volume/liquidity. You don't get as screwed on bid/ask... though MMs make a killing both ways, as does every fee-taker down the line involved with the trade. It's amazing how quickly options deteriorate just due to time erosion. Ironically, jtechkid talked me off the ledge, as it were, with all his neg. comments in the face of a rising price. This time I had to part ways. Volatility is my ally. Also, bad news is factored in, but don't forget about all the momentum players (who seem to literally move this market with impunity) who don't have to guess at bad news, they will dump AMAT short term very hard if rumor becomes reality. And we all know a rumor is just a delayed fact. I realize this is NOT what real investing is about and only put in play a portion of wealth as speculation. That said, I thank all the regulars for their insightful guidance. Is there something so strange about collecting information then making a good, solid common-sense short term volatile speculation? With a Beta of 2.5, whichever way the ride goes its assured to be wet and wild. Better than craps, too, no tired arm the next day. p.s. Ramsey, can you get me a T-shirt too... I couldn't stand the stigma any longer. Maybe on the back it could say: "I put AMAT and all I got was this lousy T-shirt" <very,very nnnnnnnervous laugh>.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/10/1998 3:50:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

To the angry bull: Testy, testy. The fur is flying, now, isn't it? re:"why aren't you bears shorting" The simple answer to that is that I have. Since march, at various times, I've shorted ASMLF, KLIC, and NVLS. I posted all those trades in real time on this and other threads, and made money on all of them. And I've posted that if KLIC nudges back up to 17, I'll short it again. I choose the others instead of AMAT because they are more volatile. re:"If AMAT is going to 12 " This is a paper tiger you're putting up. As has been explained repeatedly, a stock price of 13 (my number, at P/S=1) is the "worst-case" price, if everything possible goes wrong. It's at the outside edge of the range of possible futures. It's the price to have in the back of your mind, to keep you from buying too much on margin. My predicted high/low for 1998, back in February, was 40/22. 40 we've hit, exactly, and I think we've seen the high for the year. 22 as best-guess for the low still sounds about right. My year-end prediction, 40, I now think was too optimistic. re: "it has already been discounted" You've been saying this since the stock was at 40. You are right that the market is responding less to bad news (KLIC, KLAC recently), and that is a sign of support for the sector. You are wrong that all the bad news is out. And you're wrong that it's in the stock. Rumors of pre-announcements are different than the real thing. re: "Personally, I like the free exchange of info, but..." This is the second post you've made recently telling people to stop posting because you disagree with them. re: "this is currently a one-way thread" You're right, it is one-way. Most posters are still far too bullish. It'll probably get more balanced when the stock breaks below 26, and we all start guessing where the real bottom is. re: "you are trying to talk the stock down" I have clicked through hundreds of SI posts on many threads, alleging this. It seems to be the rebuttal of last resort, when posters are reduced to a sputtering rage, and can't think of anything rational to say. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- to teri: bull-baiting can be fun, but be careful. They haven't been fed in almost a year now, and that's made them very cranky.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/10/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Respond to of 70976

BK, Because it seems to be bothering you SO much... I have been short several equips in the past and will go short KLIC in the 17 area on the next opp, if that appears. Now, you can find a new soapbox. And yes, I like JS's trade, guess you'll see some problem with that too. FWIW, I cannot live your life for you and you cannot live my life for me. The point here is: you worry too much about how other people should trade. It's a free country, go long, go short, go flat, do whatever you like. It won't bother me either way. TS

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (21332)	7/10/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Respond to of 70976

BK, OT/OT One more thing, this is called a "boundary" issue. Sometimes people attempt to tend/dictate things that are NOT within their boundaries. This is not the way to go... makes life difficult. In this case, you seem to feel that JS's and my (and others) portfolios are within your boundaries and this is just NOT the case. At times a person has to force themselves to shrink their "boundaries" back to where they should have been in the first place. It has a number of advantages, lowers stress because there is less to worry about. End of my crash course on boundaries -g-. ts PS. The "edit" feature on SI makes you FINISH an edit within the 15 mins now, whereas before you could start the edit before the 15 mins were up and that was fine (??).