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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smh who wrote (4832)	7/10/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6136

An investors response to the to the points in the street: <<gph on defensive due to poor reports from important conference, estimare cuts, and growing skepticisim of its drugs>> What poor reports from the conference. I don't recall reading anything negative about Viracept. Viracept is being unfairly lumped in with the other PIs. Fact is Viracept has a lower side effect profile and appears to work synergistically with Sustiva. A number of analysts have given the company hold recs. Thats a major reason the stock is so cheap. <<in tuesday memo to employees Johnson revealed "an innovative plan to agressively pursue development" of newly licenced drugs>> Sounds positive to me and may relate to the next point. <<some sort of off-balance sheet financing to fund the new drugs per spokeswoman>> It will be interesting. Their neighbor Dura has used an inovative off ballance sheet approach creating a pre-funded spin off sub. They need to get the public or private investors to buy 51% subject to a call on the stock by the company. <<Johnson's rush to license resulted in questionable REMUNE deal - after years of testing it is still unclear if R has a place in AIDS treatment>> Now that is ridiculous. The deal is only 10 days old and the data in Geneva was very encouraging. Time will tell whether it was a good deal or not. The stock is being valued as if Remune has negative value which agian is absurd. If Remune is successful it is a blockbuster. It has virtually no side effects. <<Based on Geneva reports future of PI drugs looks dim. Many investors think the traditionalk AIDS combo regimen will be supplanted>> Again Viracept is being lumped in with the other PIs. yes the Sustiva preliminary results wre impressive but it was only for 24 weeks. While Sustiva may be tried instead of PIs for new low viral load HIV patients it is doubtful that any material number of patients with low or undetectible virus who are currenly on Viracept will be taken off. IMO that would be recless and I have spoken to a number of docs in the area who agree. That is why <<DLJ's Parker said the main question is not when, but how fast Viracept sales will erode - could be 20% over the next year.>> is ridiculous. It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that Viracept sales will decrease. Indeed because Viracept appears to work synergistically with Sustiva it is likely that Viracept sales will increase although there will probably be a temporary slowdown after Sustiva is released in Nov/Dec. << Short sellers looking at 57% rise in inventories and increas in sell, general, admin expense $26m -> $64m >> My guess is that short sellers helped write the article. The company is building a franchise and they are being punished by the street. Very simple proposition: If you believe that Viracept has a future and will either be flat or have modest growth and one of the three inlicenced drugs is sucessful then AGPH is a $100 stock. I've placed my bet and stand ready to double up on more weakness. V1