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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vieserre who wrote (1386)	7/10/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Giraffe	Respond to of 1911

Whenever I get too obsessed with the daily ups and downs of gold, or I feel dragged down by negative sentiments expressed here or elsewhere I just update my monthly 20 year gold chart. And I am again reminded that the universe is unfolding as it should. There is no question at all that we are at the bottom for gold - unless you're a very low cost producer who needs the cash there's not much reason to sell into this market. But just cause we're at the bottom doesn't necessarily mean the POG is going up soon and when it does move it might not move very far. However the mean price for the last 20 years is about $350 so I think it's reasonable to assume that it will gravitate in that direction. I'm not so sure that global events drive POG. Aside from currency fluctuations, I think that when gold rises it's for the same reason that Yahoo is currently rising - which is simply that people think that its going higher so if they buy now they have a chance to make a buck. They have all kinds of stories to justify their position - the future of the Internet etc etc - but it basically comes down to people seeing the balloon going up and they jump on for the ride - some think the balloon will go up forever and some hope to bail out before it pops. I don't believe gold (as in gold mines) is the place to be if you're looking for a quick buck - but there is a good return coming in the not too distant future with a very limited risk (in comparison to the stock market).

To: Vieserre who wrote (1386)	7/10/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

There are no negatives. This is the lull before the storm. Summer often brings this kind of environment to full expression. Then, out of nowhere an event takes place. Next, the situation in which nothing can go wrong, turns into the situation where everything goes wrong. It isn't coherent and the earlier situation inures the anti-attitude so deeply that is hard to reverse one's negative sentiment towards gold even though gold is powering up. It usually works in the way that you say to yourself, "well, if the cuts through this level, I'll take a little position". It cuts through that level, but you don't take the position because you can't see it. You can't see it because you trot out all the reasons why the move must fail. When one looks around our economy, one can't see any problems. Everything is swimmingly perfect and yet there has been no significant changes since the sturm und drang days of decades ago. The only thing that has changed is the Republicans lowered taxes a little and the governments, both Republican and Democrat, have held the line on new expenditures. Neither of these actions nor their degrees have all that much consequence so that sturm und drang would be converted into halcyon days. You just can't trust this weather.