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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DJBEINO who wrote (36111)	7/10/1998 9:52:00 PM
From: Chas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

This EU charge can only help MU go up as the Koreans and Japanese continue to cutback production. No one knows how long this will last, but the PC100 transition is great timing and this part of the market is tight. So maybe Micron holds 29 next week and gently floats up some more, a bit of fun for call holders not so for put holders. Here is an update from Montgomery 7-10-98: NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY*NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY*NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY July 10, 1998 SEMICONDUCTORS Jonathan Joseph (415) 627-2925 First Call Claude Hazan (415) 627-2845 DJIA: 9125 S&P500: 1165 NMSGI: 127 DRAM Pricing Update DRAM prices flattish. Prices for most DRAM have remained flat over the last week, with some specialty product like high-speed 100MHz 64Mbs increasing about 10%, and other products flat or down a percentage point. As we noted yesterday, we believe unit sales for most of the DRAM manufacturers were up sharply from May to June, reflecting some recovery in the personal computer industry, which has been suffering from a slowdown and industry oversupply for the last three quarters. Indeed, lead times at some DRAM distributors have actually moved out from zero to three weeks in the past two days. A drop of rain in the desert. The DRAM industry is in trouble. We believe shipments this year may be as low as $12 billion, with losses of $11 billion. This has forced a sharp cutback in capital spending and industry consolidation. Micron acquired TI's assets and Samsung looks set to acquire LG Semi. The Japanese have largely loss interest and want to downsize their operations. The industry has been in a three-year capacity glut, which has been exacerbated by weakness in the personal computer market. The medicine the industry needs is stronger demand to absorb excess capacity. We may be seeing the start of that demand. DRAMs the industry bellwether. If demand for DRAMs is improving, it means demand for most PC-bound components, notably microprocessors, logic, and low-end analog, will also begin to see stronger demand. More than that, firming prices in DRAM should have an impact on pricing strategies across the industry, suggesting improved economics going forward. EOM: