To: MartinDane who wrote (4456 ) 7/10/1998 7:37:00 PM From: BigRedMan Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8879
MartinDane, Excellent response. A concept that T.G.W. has difficulty coming to grips with as he constantly asks the questions regarding prior year financial information. What he doesn't understand (his lack of understanding in this area...I don't understand) is that financial information cannot be released to individuals unless it has been made public. AND...it can't be made public until it is "reviewed" by an independent auditor. This information will be forthcoming in August. So why, one might ask, do us idiots invest in a company PRIOR to the release of financials and the validation of press releases??? This isn't rocket science here...I firmly believe I could get a 10-year old to understand this... What do you think will happen when financials are released (i.e. there is full disclosure on the company) and the recent press releases are validated (assuming things turn out how I hope they turn out), the stock price will sky-rocket to well over $1!! Many of us are willing to assume the additional risk to acquire shares at firesale prices. I explained an element of EMT that applies here in one of my prior posts. It isn't that complicated! Investing is assuming a certain amount of risk with the expectancy of a return that outweighs the risk. Let me put it in mathematical terms (I have greatly simplified this scenario for illustrative purposes...I think you'll get the point)... If you perceive that there is a 1 in 10 chance of GLOW succeeding...and you determine that "success" is $5 stock price by the end of next year and "non-success" is $0 stock price by the end of next year, you can apply simple algebra to determine if the investment is sound: 1 x $5 = $5 9 x $0 = $0 $5 + $0 = $5 / 10 = $.50 Based on the scenario, a market price of less than $.50 would be a buy. As I mentioned, I have greatly simplified this scenario for illustrative purposes (risk tolerance, levels of success, etc. all need to be factored in). However, I have provided the gist of the analysis I used to determine that it was a good investment. ...later... GO BIG RED