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Biotech / Medical : Theragenics (TGX) on the up and up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tony nikou who wrote (972)	7/10/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand	Respond to of 1055

Tony, I am holding and have added recently to my shares as I am anticipating price recovery and am expecting reasonably good near term performance. I would suggest you look at the last 50 or so posts on this board and the co's 10K's, etc., to gauge the competition. It seems to me that THRX has a monopoly, at present, on Pd 103 seeds -- a product for which demand outstrips supply. THRX is adding capacity to meet demand and its earnings should grow substantially in the near term (through 1999). But the situation could change rapidly and needs to be monitored vigilantly. NASI's success/failure in making cheaper Pd 103 seeds, which should be known in September, is a critical determinant in THRX's continued success. G/L. Tulvio

To: tony nikou who wrote (972)	7/10/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: dfloydr	Respond to of 1055

Tony, I have followed THRX very closely for two years. I sold out a big position a year ago when I needed cash for a project I was in ... and not at the high. I was just this week able to start buying back in. Why get back in? Management at THRX is solid. Even when I have thought they were nuts, they turned out to have good reasons for their actions. Even now, seeding only accounts for some small percentage of prostate treatments ... as a guess 6 or 8% of US procedures and virtually nil anywhere else in the world. Maybe someone can give us more accurate numbers. It seems to me there is room for a lot of growth in this market. My brother is a urologist who has had an long standing excellent record treating patients with surgery. He was also early to learn seeding techniques while he worked in the Seattle area. His conclusion so far is that the seeding offers huge advantages to most patients in terms of length of recovery (hours vs. weeks) and in terms of after care ($ and sanity). THRX is solidly in the business with the best name and they have a well respected partner - J&J - doing their marketing. J&J can support sales world wide. THRX should gain economies as more cyclotrons come on line and might therefore be able to even reduce prices in time. Strong brand familiarity together with pricing flexibility is just what you need to make it rough competitors. THRX could loose out if other methods of producing seeds are considerably cheaper. But I am not sure how much "cheaper" will matter in this market. Timely delivery, reliable calibration, etc., may all mean more in the end. You are a patient or you are a doc: do you want a fix using familiar materials ... or do you want cheap? There are other cancers that might well be treated using seeds. I suspect that some of the announced players in this market may prove to be marginal or may not even really materialize. THRX hit some crazy high multiples and that probably attracted a lot of attention. I suspect the last month - which has seen THRX, NASI etc take it on the nose - has sobered up some of the dreamers. It may take a while for this stock to get back to $23, but I suspect that it will and that it will keep on going for at least a couple of years. You could also read back over the last few months of comments on this thread. It would take a little time, but I think you would get a pretty thorough picture of THRX from the effort.