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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DancesWithFedCalls who wrote (9922)	7/10/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: llamaphlegm	Respond to of 164684

Dances: No, no that's good. I'd far a prefer a slow, spasmodic, meandering, and fairly orderly death spiral over the next 4-12 months. Leaves one more time to reflect, build positions as the obvious becomes more obvious and the momo players and their "analysis" disappears, only to be followed, slowly, to the exits by the retail folks who don't understand why stocks don't simply rise forever. Over the next year, this stock will face a range of problems. 1. Execution, brand extension, marketing, and cash flow issues. 2. Increased competition from the killer Bs. 3. Increased use of shop bots and possible integration into YHOO & AOL of the bots. 4. Industry issues. IE actual buys v. hits. I know a techie who tracks stuff like this. Hard data to mine. However, the article posted earlier today, points out one reality check as hits and actual purchases are decoupled in anaylsts minds. Summer slowdown. Reality of decreased margins for retailers of all types becomes increasingly obvious. MOMO players go elsewhere. Growth rate in use of even YHOO and of course amzn slows down (Yhoo and amzn already are -- see latest yhoo release and/or relevant knowledge data). 5. Macroeconomic -- Asia, Russia, Emerging markets in general. Perfection is already priced into the stock market. How much lower can rates go? Japan -- God only knows the extent of the problem out there. And finally, Y2K -- imho by the late summer, early fall the forecasts may start to smack the stock market around -- Ed Yardeni at DMG predicting a major recession in "00, as are honchos at goldman, lehman et al ... when does this get priced in? How does this cast a general pall, if at all, on e commerce which is clearly dependent on secure and well functioning computer systems? 6. The Surprises? One never knows what lurks. Any positive surprises and brand extensions etc. have been priced in for the next 5-10 years. What happens the first time we get publicity about a hacker gets into a YHOO, AOL, or perish the thought AMZN and starts screwing around with the content, credit card accounts etc? Oh, you're probably right, could never happen, after all don't they use systems almost as secure as the Pentagon's and those guys never have problems with hackers???