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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (5129)	7/10/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Bonnie and Susan, At the risk of being labeled a bear again, let me add one thing to the discussion on currencies. With a rapidly deteriorating current account, the US has relied upon massive capital inflows to propel its' dollar upward. This has been a self reinforcing process as a rising dollar has attracted more investment which supports further gains in the currency. When this cycle is interrupted, perhaps as you say by the Euro, the process will work in reverse. The US will be left with huge quantities of its' currency leaving the country via trade without the balancing effect of inflows from investment. I will be at the ready to short the dollar for a very long and nasty ride south. Robert

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (5129)	7/10/1998 5:55:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Susan, Bonnie; <<A good number of peoples around the globe do not share our high opinion of ourselves and when the time comes that they can help put a pin in our bubble they will with glee. I don't know if people in this country realize how much the US is resented around the world, rightly or wrongly it matters not.>> It is true that the U.S. is not neccessarily winning popularity votes in Asia these days and we have always suffered the scorn of the Europeans who can't quite shake their image of us as upstarts. However, I don't see anyone purposefully sticking a pin in our bubble. That would be tantamount to stewing the golden goose. I also do not see the Euro or the Yen offering an alternative to the dollar at least in the forseeable future. Best, Stitch