Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lin luo who wrote (1140)	7/10/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Ming	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

It is quite evident that 100% accuracy in stock-picking is not possible, even for a legend like Warren Buffett. But rational analysis will probably ensure that you're right 80% of the time, which is more than enough to make you fabulously rich, if you take the care to diversify your holdings and not overweight in one "favorite". My short-term prediction on Dell is a highly speculative one, and I wouldn't put half my portfolio, or even 10% of it, in such a pick. In any case, I would probably buy a short-term put to hedge it, in case anything went wrong. Same for my long-term forecast: Shorting is a very risky practice: your gains are capped at 100%, and your losses are theoretically unlimited. Unless a stock goes down by a significant percentage (say 20%+) in a short period of time, shorting is not that profitable. In the case of Dell, I feel that the decline will be a long and protracted one, as every PC maker moves into direct sales and begins to outsource production. For a prudent investor, it is simply just better to watch the decline from the sidelines than to aggressively short the stock. But that depends on your taste and risk tolerance.