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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (50642)	7/11/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: Stewart Walton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Jim, You hit on it, I think, when you said "That is the problem with DELL and the stock market as a whole." i.e. that you might lose money. If we are in the stock market, then we are probably well aware of that risk, and we have probably already experienced it (grin). As a broker, you may see a lot of people who haven't figured that out, but they certainly are not on this thread. Even Super Dell Bull Kemble knows very well the risks he is taking. If we are willing to risk our money betting on the economy, investing in companies, then how do you recommend that we make the choices? Chose investments with good upside potential, and diversify the risks. Diversify in the type of investment? (stocks/bonds/MM) Diversify in market segments? (Oil, computers, cars) Diversify in the individual companies within those segments? (DELL, CPQ, IBM). Now within each of those choices, we have to decide on an allocation. Shouldn't it be slanted toward those choices that are most likely to perform in the time frame that we are investing? Using CTC's description of valuation (present value of future earnings), I will favor a company whose earnings are exceptionally consistent (DELL) over one that is variable (CPQ), given that they are in the same market and suffer the same external factors. When I look at the fundamentals of each company and believe that there are good reasons for the difference in performance, then I feel comfortable that this is the right choice. It may be that the market already knows all this, and has discounted it, but I still have a holding in a fundamentally solid stream of earnings, which I would not with the other choice. The next dilemma is when to cash in. At what point am I greedy; after all, my average cost is around $1. Should I take my profits and put them into something else? If so, what? I am more comfortable with a huge (to me) holding in Dell than in anything else I can find, thanks in large part to the outstanding analysis and discussion on this thread. It appears to me that you feel that Dell is heading for a crash, but you don't know when or why, but want to be the one that warned us. Thanks, but it doesn't help without some concrete information that we can assess. Please help me understand the underlying fundamentals in the economy, market, or Dell that make this investment more risky than another. Sorry if this is pedantic and obvious, but like you, I use writing to clarify my thoughts. Stewart

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (50642)	7/13/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: K. M. Strickler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

JP, >>> But the real risk in investing is loosing money. After a prolonged advance, that risk increases. In DELL's case, it is increasing. I do feel the stock is going to rally up to its earnings report, unless the market becomes disenchanted with the July E reports, then many stock may suffer or experience volitlity. <<< I thought the E report was August, and July was the shareholders meeting, but what do I know? Now Jim, it doesn't take a 'rocket scientist' to know that DELL has pulled back after earnings, after all, it did a 98 1/2 to ~82(?) last time. If you are worried, and have a 'sheltered position ( no tax liability )' you can always 'sell' just prior to the earnings report, if you feel that the stock will pull back. That is if you aren't holding 10 million shares, and if you are trading 'on line' where you can initiate your own order without depending on some broker that just doesn't seem to get to your order until all the biggies are taken care of and the stock is down a couple of points. The motion in almost any other scenario will cost you big $$$, and the 'taxman' comeith to take 'profit' and 'fun'! JMHO Regards, Ken