To: Sheri who wrote (7193 ) 7/12/1998 4:03:00 PM From: Argonaut Respond to of 8798
EGGS - From Nasdaq BB Alert: INTERNET STOCKS - SHORTS VS LONGS Egghead hit a new high on Friday at $22 5/8, a pure battle between the shorts and the longs. One of the lessons learnt hard recently by the shorts is " Do not short Internet stocks " WHY ? There is no current valuation model out there of how much they are worth and also the fact that most of these stocks have small floats and a buying frenzy creating by analysts. Revenues are rising rapidly though earnings are not. Shorts in their nature do not give up but keep shorting at higher levels until they make their losses back which they eventually will but in the meanwhile during the short squeeze, there could be a lot of money to be made. Look at KTEL. Those who got in early in the rise made a killing while some where left holding the bag at higher values. Greed and fear are the primary emotions here. SHARE SPLITS Because of the high demand created by these stocks during short squeezes, most of these stocks announce share splits compounding the situation even more giving way to even higher prices. EGGHEAD SOFTWARE EGGS-Nasdaq Let the volatility begin! Bollinger bands have seriously opened up as of Friday. How would you like your eggs? Scrambled, fried, sunny side up? As predicted early Friday morning, EGGS is exhibiting a classic short squeeze where we could have another runaway internet stock like we had YAHOO, AMAZON etc. to name a few. Why? For starters, a not too big float, higher revenues, several institutions were on the buy side with already high insider ownership, etc A STRONG BUY from Riley Research Capital came Thursday to join the bandwagon. Not a big name out there by any standards but they did call the short squeeze on KTEL on split second timing giving it a $100 target. They are calling for a target of $85 on Egghead, however as we had predicted on Friday, they had a share position in Egghead so why not a high target. It might reach at least half that right? Riley recommendation had a little clout as their stuff goes through all the major news wires out there and he was the first one to call on the KTEL squeeze right before it happened. EGGS has high institutional ownership already of 56 %. They have a cash value of $2.87 a share, and increased revenue from their websites. SHORT RATIO Egghead had a short position or roughly 1.5 million going into July. It must have surely burgeoned quite a bit in the last week as it traded roughly. In july, EGGS short ratio had increased from 2.35 to 5.12 from May to June. This means it would take an average of 5.12 days to cover all the short position in EGGS. Ratio = Shares Short / Avg Daily Volume; it may be used as a rough measure of days to cover. TOMMOROW? In our opinion, this is the scenario: EGGS will probably gap higher say open between $23 to $24 on heavy volume. Then there will be a brief pause in volume and then come out the sellers and shorters from the wood works drilling it back to Fridays close or even below for a momentary period. Then come the institutions and the small investors and start bidding the stock up. We could reach $25. A possibility of more analyst jumping on the bandwagon recommending EGGHEAD, resulting in an authentic buying panic market. Thereafter the floodgates would open giving rise to spectacular gains. We do not see any kind of fallout in EGGS from panic selling as there seems to be a lot of activity happening fundamentally, i.e. they have a lot of cash, rising revenues, analyst recommendations, high short position etc. It is not unlikely that EGGS could break through $30 this week given all the positive press in the weekend and possibly more to come during the week. 7/10/98 21.438 17.750 22.625 17.125 20,797,000 7/09/98 17.000 16.750 17.375 15.500 6,867,100 7/08/98 15.250 15.750 16.875 14.000 7,218,300 7/07/98 15.500 18.000 19.250 15.125 26,442,800 7/06/98 14.813 9.563 14.875 9.500 12,304,400 7/02/98 9.000 8.406 9.125 8.406 661,100 7/01/98 8.438 8.438 8.500 8.188 143,500 6/30/98 8.438 8.188 8.438 8.000 167,600 6/29/98 8.188 8.563 8.563 8.125 105,100