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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roy F who wrote (21443)	7/10/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<<If sales are at $850m and orders are at $600m, where does that take us next quarter? .10 to .13?>> Operating loss.

To: Roy F who wrote (21443)	7/10/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Respond to of 70976

Thread, I posted three days back about going short on AMAT. I was a long bull and have made money in the previous up trend and sold too early due to personal reasons. I felt I missed the chance when they split. So I started cost-dollar averaging since it was trading at 51 post split. I came all the way down and kept the average at 34.50. A few weeks back when it was trading in mid 30s I bought Oct in-the-money puts as a hedge and was waiting it to go up to sell at my cost. But that never happened and hence I sold my long shares and Leaps at decent loss. But this thread helped me a lot in making me go short. I respect GM, Teri, Brian, jetchkid, Jacob, aki, Eugene, Paul, Justa, Katherine, Big Bucks, Ramsey and others for their opinion and inputs. Now I am short (puts) which will evenout and allow me to buy long positions during this down trend. Based on today's warning my target is below 20. Current PSR is around 2.2 based on current sales. This will go down with low sales in next three (including the current) quarters or so. Based on GM's historical PSR graph I will enter (or load my sports utility) to the fullest when PSR hits anywhere below 1.75. Till then I am watching this baby from sideline irrespective of what Morgan or any body else wishes and hopes. As I said ASEA is a big mess and more than 30% of AMAT's sales come from there. I think that EUrope's recovery will stall due to ASEA as they also export lot of stuffs to ASEA and hence their bottom line will also be pinched. I think we still have time to buy some puts as a hedge. Go for deep in the money puts with at least 3 to 6 months time window. All the best. -Karun (I will never keep my eye away from AMAT and will be a bull after another 3 to 6 months).