Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Vinman who wrote (21463)	7/10/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: Tech Watcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The thing to remember about the brokerage houses is they only give valid information to their top clients. Anything that filters out to the general public is merely meant to manipulate the markets to the advantage of the few. A BUY recommendation means, "This stock is topping-out and we want to get our people out of it." The extra volume the recommendation will supply allows them to exit gracefully. A HOLD or NEUTRAL which is what you will probably see them issue AMAT on Monday means, "This stock is long-term attractive. Push it down as low as you can so we can begin our accumulation." I refer you back to the last earnings report when anyone who could read knew AMAT was in for a tough quarter. Some brokers had the audacity to recommend AMAT as a BUY to get them up to $40 so they could begin selling in earnest. (Morgan Stanley Dean Witter for one on 05/13). If they liked it at $40, they should LOVE it at $27. We'll see if they have the guts to reiterate their buy on it! If the downgrades don't come on Monday, then hold on to your money. If the downgrades and earnings revisions come out on Monday then get ready to buy!

To: The Vinman who wrote (21463)	7/10/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 70976

Vinman, no, I am not kidding. I said that because of the lunatic frenzy that is going on in the market right now. Besides, it is not at all unexpected. Yes, the forward looking numbers look horrible. That is why I am saying that they will post an operating loss for the next Q. I think AMAT is deadmeat for this cycle which really ended in mid 1996. The revenue surge that came from leveraged buying of the Asians since then was just not sustainable. Even the revenue increases from 1996, the significant one, came only in the 3rd Q of 1997. Before that both revenues and profits were down from year ago (1996) levels. Yet, the stock is about 25% from the low of last cycle. When you look at the forward looking 1998 revenues, I bet they pale in comparison to 1996 numbers. Perhaps the real revenues will be lower than the 1995 revenues. Whatever may be the price in the intermediate term, I think the stock is headed towards the teens by the turn of the year. That said, there are so many lunatics out there with a lot of money to burn. You will never know for sure! -MMV

To: The Vinman who wrote (21463)	7/10/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: zsteve	Respond to of 70976

RE--->>>While I sat day trading in my home office this week I was hearing that a number of brokerage houses were adding AMAT to their "special value" list and "priority" list, and I was sitting there saying WHY? WHY? These idiot ANALysts need to be taken out and shot, they are worthless. I am asking myself the same question regarding positive comments about Micron Technology this week, what these fools are looking at I have no idea.<<< ANAlysts are working for their employers and huge bonuses, not for you and me. I closed my AMAT short before the bell @29 1/8, thinking I would get higher prices to short next week because we got those idiot ANALysts. now, it seems I'm an idiot:-). shorted MU yestoday and got 1 point. planned to short again today if MU went over 30, maybe I lost another chance to short it over 29(well, we always get chances).