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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: chenys who wrote (18990)7/10/1998 7:08:00 PM
From: jim bender  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 45548
 
joe, looks like Palms is doing good. I was in Frys last week and they are selling lots of Palms
My guess is Palm will create new revenue 500 to 600M by the end of FY99.
-jim



To: chenys who wrote (18990)7/10/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: joe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
 

My guestimate: at 50% it would take 2 - 5 years

In 2 years 3Com would make $945 million in sales.

$1,200,000. * [(1.5)]^2 * 350. = $945 million sales.

In 5 years 3Com would make

$1,200,000. * [(1.5)]^5 * 350. = $3.189 billion sales

(I'm not sure how much revenue would be needed)

But, I think the Palm computer is going to grow faster
than 50% a year. I'd say anywhere's from 3-10 times
in a year. So the calculation goes like this:

1 year at 300% annual growth --
$1,200,000. * [(3.00)^1] * 350. = $1.26 billion sales

2 years at 300% annual growth --

$1,200,000. * [(3.00)^2] * 350. = $3.7 billion sales



I'd have to see how much revenue is needed. Then how
much is profit from the modems. Then how much is profit
from the Palm computers.

Looks like 3Com is really counting on the Palm Pilots
hitting the big time out past year 2000. That's what
some people think.