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To: Judy who wrote (11783)	7/10/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

judy, will amat have ripple effect on our aug/dells? i don't care about long term. i hope amat tanks as it will be the last chance to buy on the bad news. if amat goes down -> intel (which was already at 80 and looking for a reason to head south) -> cpq -> dell. ripples.? OR all bad news from amat is in the stock?

To: Judy who wrote (11783)	7/10/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

the problem is more than Japan - Taiwan is pushing back all the orders to 1999 and demanding price concession. (they did that to ASMLF earlier) We dont know where is the bottom but AMAT in 1996's downturn was traded at as low as 11 and close 1996 at 17. Need to go back to see how much revenues AMAT did in 1996 period to try to get a comparison, as to what price/sales ratio was then.

To: Judy who wrote (11783)	7/10/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: Nancy	Respond to of 42787

ok, here are the numbers - note stock price was much higher while earning was actually smaller in 1997. year revenues income EPS stock 97 4074 498 1.32 48-23 96 4144 599 1.63 20-12 95 3061 454 1.28 26-10

To: Judy who wrote (11783)	7/11/1998 9:52:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 42787

I agree. I'm just reiterating what they previously provided in their guidance. They seem less certain now. I thought that their prior guidance said that 3rd and 4th quarters would be 10% lower revenues than those forecast at the start of the year. I had also read somewhere (not necessarily reliable) that the book-to-bill ratio was around 0.6 for many companies. As the backlog of shipments drop, the book-to-bill may rise artificially. I would think the semiconductor companies would benefit before the manufacturing equipment companies since it would take longer to increase capacity once orders stabilize. Companies like Solectron, Sanmina, LSI Logic, etc.