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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (28871)	7/10/1998 9:09:00 PM
From: Night Writer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Harry, I think the inventory problem is gone, and DEC intergration is progressing well. CPQ is being recognized as an undervalued stock. It is a name people recognize and people buy what they recognize. IMO MMs are starting to pick up some shares. The volume is too high for small guys like me to be driving it. I think the rumor is Compaq will beat the estimates and start to recover. Look at the option activity for the last two days. It has gone through the roof big time. I doubt small investors are creating that much activity on the CBOE. Some big money is making some big bets. I don't know what is behind that activity, but I know there is a lot of activity. I did note the number of calls at 30 dropped about 7,000. Could be roll ups, or shorts calling shares to cover their positions. Could be smart guys that bought calls when the stock was in mid 20s covering for a profit. There are still a ton of calls at 30. The number of puts in that area jumped some today. Are they buyers or sellers? I don't know. What I think is Intel announces Tuesday. If it's good Compaq jumps up. Compaq announces Wednesday and if it's good maybe a small gain. Then the fun (?) begins. How many sellers into the good news combined with options pressure can the stock price hold? A price just above or below 30 kills millions of dollars in potential profits for call buyers or sellers. I don't think the news can be strong enough to prevent a slide back to the 30 range by Friday. Compaq has a history of closing at or below parity on options expiration day. After that If the news was good, I think it will start climbing toward $40. I have been correct in the past, and I have been very wrong. My opinion is based on observation and general knowledge. If I had the answers, I would be living the high life on my profits and too busy to post. <g> NW