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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom D who wrote (9990)	7/10/1998 7:43:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

Great post. Nice deceleration in Web visits. If that equates to web sales, then Amazon is growing sales about 200% annual rate which is about 1/10th the rate needed to justify the current stock price.

To: Tom D who wrote (9990)	7/10/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Tom D, haven't you made enough money here without having to hype Amzn's web visits? Don't you think that the unprecedented rise in this stock made every Yuppie and MD visit this site, this last 2 months? I hope your not another 'Mr Pink' pretending to be an MD or a retail broker with Morgan Stanley. I think I'll call the AMA to see if you are real! To make it easy for me, could you please give me your Social security #. Thank You.

To: Tom D who wrote (9990)	7/10/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: BayPig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

It is interesting to note that the increase between March and June months specifically was only 16.8%. On the other hand, their hits grew 93% between the months of January and March. This shows a considerable slowing in hit growth. Considering the fact that they have greatly increased advertising, received a ton of free press from their stock performance, and launched their music business last month, I am surprised the numbers are that low. So, their # of hits increase 24% while their stock price increases over 100% - what's wrong with that picture? It will be interesting to see how many of these hits turned into sales. Also be interesting to see how much they are spending on advertising and the resulting margins. I can't imagine the margins are going to be very impressive. BayPig

To: Tom D who wrote (9990)	7/10/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Tom, the +24% hit number is below the sales trend: Sales Sales Growth Hits Hits Growth Q2 96 2.2 (Mil.) Q3 96 4.2 90.9% Q4 96 8.4 100.0% Q1 97 16.0 90.5% Q2 97 27.9 74.4% Q3 97 37.9 35.8% Q4 97 66.1 74.4% Q1 98 87.4 32.2% 11.7 Q2 98 107.5 (EST.) 14.5 23.9% If an increase in hit rates leads directly to an increase in sales, then the sales growth is below trend, by about a factor of 2. Admittedly, 25% per quarter is still 250% per year, however the Q198 year/year growth was 500%. Anyone know if a +25% increase in quarter-to-quarter sales would be on target? By the way, if the seasonal pattern were to hold, the Q2 (the one being announced on 7/22) is supposed to be above trend (it was +70% last year). If sales grow by +25% in this quarter, then the sales would be 107.5, or +385% over last year. An impressive growth rate, but definitely indicates a slowing. I wonder if the various shopbots which seem to access the Amazon pages (and other sites) for you, count as a hit?