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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Merritt who wrote (29678)	7/11/1998 10:42:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Meritt, The big oil runups I remember were in the mid-1970s and early 1980s. That is when everyone had to wait in line for gasoline for hours. And, in both of those periods, the economic buzzword was stagflation. From the Nixon collapse, a pause, and then into the Carter malaise, the stock market gave you a return of -70% of your spending power over a 14 year period. That is what I see occuring, not the blip of the last oil move caused by the war in Iraq. And we sure didn't need a great economy to give oil some zip. The only economy doing well at those times was Japan. Hmmm! <G> Of course a Saudi sheikh will underestimate. The same way some officer at Texas Instruments will overestimate the demand for chips. That's why I prefer to discount their conclusions and look at it more scientifically. However, I don't think the real point is running out. It is running out of plenty. The fact that the 1000 richest people on the planet will still be able to drive their cars doesn't turn me on. There have been zero huge discoveries in the last 20 years, even with all the technology you mentioned. Mainly because they don't exist. North Sea and other areas are nice, but trickles compared to what the world needs. When the Near East runs out of the easy stuff, the game be over. Don't know Hubbert, but I would certainly like to see her curves. <G> MB