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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21535)	7/11/1998 12:52:00 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, For what it's worth, I am sitting here at home with my kids screaming in the background, and it fully strikes me that there is not enough concern about amat because everyone is sure the bounce will eventually occur. Aki's scenario MUST play out for amat to see the high teens or worse....... ......say it's September and the nas is dropping like a rock for whatever reason...mm's looking around for what to dump, see that the small caps are still dirt cheap, they don't have net stocks, they don't want to sell much msft or csco, the sky is falling around them, they sell amat. The other mm's see amat dive through "support" so they sell, with the thought that it is finally dropping to where it should be anyway...buyers are paralyzed, thinking that everything is crashing and amat is a dead dog for awhile anyway, so they would rather buy msft or csco, which of course have gotten cheaper, too. Everyone stays away for a day, a week, maybe 3 weeks. Sanity prevails after it spins at 15-17, with "investors" realizing that business is turning within a few months....the gold rush begins, but is not clean like we imagine, it goes in ugly fits and starts, big bursts that seem premature, with scary pullbacks of 20%....... A buying plan should be prepared this weekend. Best wishes to all.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (21535)	7/11/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

JS, Re: "This next downturn is going to squeeze out everyone who is holding the stock hoping for an upturn within 12 months. Once that happens, then the only people left long will be the "strong hands", the very long-term value investors with cast-iron stomachs. Only when the stock is in their hands will the risk of a further sharp sell-off be gone. When pessimism is at it's height, when every Fidelity fund has sold their holdings, when everyone is calling it a cyclical, when no analyst dares issue a 'strong buy' then it will be finally safe to hold the stock. Ain't there yet." I couldn't have said that any better. And to me it was worth repeating. So, what happens to the angry bulls now? (mostly a rhetorical question). tls