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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sonki who wrote (11793)	7/12/1998 2:21:00 AM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

sonki, yes, if you could dig up the 96 btb compare to 98 for me. I believe next week semi conf will be 'fess up time - they have to finally tell how bad things really have gone - it didn't really surprise me that AMAT finally came out - because if they dont, they will have to anyway during the semi conf or stay numb if they dont want to lie. being a cyclical company amat should never be worth p/e 50 even on future hope - business would not jump/recover by 100% to warrant a p/e 50 assuming it would drop down to 25 (require a 100% jump in earnings) i doubt we have seen the bottom of nvls/amat yet - have you seen Alex Brown's latest est on amat ? they cut the 1998 est to barely over a buck, but the scary part is the 1999 est, they cut it from 1.56 to 0.99 - 0.99 for 1999, very pessimistic on the business. May be too pessimistic. pfe, i think it would try 120 but wouldn't sustain - European approval will not come until at least late Sept. between now and then, stock would just meander. On top of that, 60%-80% movement in big pharma stocks are directly related to the general market.