To: Gail Morgan who wrote (1380 ) 7/12/1998 1:41:00 PM From: DWB Respond to of 2346
Gail, How do I explain Singer? Well, in the context of my answer it is right on target. Singer is not a Chinese company, any more than CP Pokphand is. While JD was recommending it (which he no longer is...), and even today, it is a leader in it's industry, with great expansion potential into China. The fact that management went screwy, and the Asian troubles caused it's sales to plummet doesn't mean it wasn't a good idea at the time. In reading your response, I got the impression that you thought all JD did to evaluate a company was talk/meet with management. I think that's a gross mischaracterization. Do you truly believe that he doesn't scour the balance sheets of every company he recommends? The difference is that he doesn't stop there... While many analysts will use nothing more than text and spreadsheets to form their recommendations, JD adds to that by meeting with the companies. Do you honestly think that JD is unaware that companies "put on the ritz" when he shows up? I'm of the opinion that he's able to see though a lot of that, and that he has a good feel for profitable companies. Any analyst can look at a quarterly and tell you if a company is doing well or not, the key is realizing before the masses when companies that aren't doing well are just about to get back on track. True, the DGE fund hasn't done much since it's inception. It does suffer from a strong contribution from the asian investments in it's portfolio, which I might add aren't picked by JD and Thom, but instead by Guinness Flight. JD and Thom only do the European/US picks. If you have such a big problem with JD being out of the office, there is a simple solution... don't subscribe. I for one don't begrudge him days out of his "office". Nor do I hold his feet to the fire, and demand that he never make a mistake. DWB