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To: Tom Simpson who wrote (695)7/11/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 848
 
Hi Tom - My book value numbers of $11.85 are based on an S&P snap shot as of March 1998. You are quite correct that management can adjust the value based on how they classify their manufacturing assets and if they are state-of-the art equipment or just "junk".

Then of course there is the question of the on going operating loss that eats up cash and reducing the book value over time. It's a moving target.

As I explained, my guess of $7.50 per share post financing assumes no significant "other" write downs and the total capital improvements do not exceed the the $120 million as stated in the 10Q. These variables could change thus decreasing (or increasing) my guess.

One thing that is obvious is that the short term upside is limited to no more than $7.50 IMO until (1) the additional shares are absorbed in the market and (2) significant positive changes occur for the industry. It may take two or three quarters for this to occur(...maybe longer if we see more warnings similar to AMAT).

It's nice to see that other investors are thinking along the same value approach. For me it still becomes a question of Risk vs. Reward.

EKS