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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5146)	7/11/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Mike, the "minimelt down" according the turnips is in Autumn, in the September/October time frame. The summer rally came on time (it was supposed to start between the 15 to the 24 of June and it did early in that period). The networkers and the internet crazies did indeed have a major move together with "dometsic" and financials of all kind. The rally is still on course. I expect a "fake out" new high on the DOW before any serious correction. My bottom downside risk is still at 8250 or so. After the minimelt, the thesis of liquidity, according to same turnips, will reestablish itself. I see a lot of bearish torments here, but note that the NAZ, The S&P and the Wilshire 5000 are already breaching new highs. The long bonds has also breached a new high and the Dow transportation will probably follow, IMHO. All this hand wringing here is a very nice contrary wall of worry to climb over. Early next year we may be looking at 10,000 on the DOW and we may blink again. As for the EURO, I have yet to see a major reallignement of currencies not accompanied by major dislocations. The EURO might be the death nail of the bull markets in Europe with our market finally succumbing last. As a matter of fact, I would not be surprised to see the EURO actually fail. It depends a lot on European nations' willingness to give up national sovereignty. I do not see the EURO as a strong contender to the dollar for some time. As far as currencies goes, after another push to new lows (I have something in the range of 150 to 156 yen/dollar), the yen will slowly strengthen as Japan finally and agonizingly slowly regain some economic balance. They have to or the pacific rim plunges into a lengthy depression, which I do not think will happen. Zeev

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5146)	7/11/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Respond to of 9980

Yet another preannouncement. Applied Materials (AMAT) preannounces with bigtime bad news. Here are some highlights if they can be so construed, revenue decline trend looking serious: "The Company currently expects new orders of $600 million to $675 million, net sales of $850 million to $885 and ongoing earnings of $0.15 to $0.18..." "their near-term effect on the semiconductor equipment industry will be more severe than previously anticipated." "The Company's customers are delaying orders, rescheduling equipment deliveries and reducing spending on wafer fabrication support as they evaluate the impacts of difficult economic conditions in Asia, DRAM overcapacity and weaker than expected PC sales, compounded by a movement to lower-priced (sub$1,000) PCs. Although these factors have been present for some time, their near-term effect on the semiconductor equipment industry will be more severe than previously anticipated." Quarter Ending 01/26/97 04/27/97 07/27/97 10/26/97 01/25/98 04/26/98 07/26/98 Revenue (millions) 835.8 900.9 1057.2 1280.4 1307.7 1176.3 885 (projected high side) Net Income (millions) 29.6 102.1 186.6 180.1 228.9 141.2 68.3(projected high side) <30.>(restructure charge) Net Profit Margin 3.5% 11.3% 17.7% 14.1% 17.5% 12.0% 7.7% Shares Outstanding (millions) 370.9 375.8 379.2 382.8 379.1 379.2