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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Miles Brandon who wrote (17177)7/11/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Craig Stevenson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
 
Miles,

That's exactly my point. With Hucom revenues clearly declining, one has to wonder why that is occurring. The continuing banter about the Japanese crisis makes me think that Hucom's customers are feeling the pinch, and hence the delays. As long as it is only a DELAY, that's fine, but the depth of this crisis makes me worry about an outright cancellation. Remember, we were never told what the minimum revenue figure was for Hucom. They could have already met their minimum contractual requirement, and may not have to purchase any more equipment. (Worst case scenario, I admit.) Another concern of mine is if Hucom's contract will be renewed for 1999. With virtually nothing else to prop them up, Ancor is highly dependent on Hucom and IBM Global Services.

On a related note, Ancor simply cannot survive for long with a quarterly revenue rate of $1 million dollars, because they burn about $2.5 million of cash in the process. Despite what should be a growing Fibre Channel market, storage revenues have NOT increased substantially. Ancor's continued dependence on LAN revenue (1/4 gig and 1 gig older generation gear), limits their growth potential. The MKII is the product that should have put Ancor over the top, but that hasn't translated into increased revenues yet.

A number of these factors are undoubtedly factored into the current stock price. The HUGE downside volume several weeks ago tells me that something went haywire that we didn't (and probably still don't) know about. There has been a lot of speculation about what it might have been, but I'd just like to find out for sure, before I start buying very many shares.

Craig