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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.Prazeres who wrote (25513)	7/11/1998 9:34:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

To all; call PKD Earnings replay w/analysts by 11 a.m. today ! # - call 1 800- 633-8284 enter replay #4486668 You will feel much better about the future! comments people ?

To: P.Prazeres who wrote (25513)	7/11/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

O/T Paulo ..... I'm using your bearishness as a contrarian indicator ! - what happened to Mr. Positive - ? Actually my points on PE's, is that they are much lower than 3-6 months ago and ARE based on greatly reduced earnings estimates as well ! - not the old estimates... There has been a dramatic reduction in BOTH the PE and Earnings estimates. See PKD's dayrate and utilization #'s and comments... You would have thought dayrates were in freefall with no bottom in sight - just like the stock prices. Actually what happened was that the analysts were shooting from the hip to a certain extent in reducing earnings expectations based upon much more negative dayrate and utilization models than what Parker just reported. In their defense - it's better to error on the downside... if oil went to $12 - where would the bottom be? Hell, were many of these analysts even around in the prior oil crashes - or even born yet ? I'll take Cross Timbers CEO buying $130 Million plus of ''reserve'' stocks as being a legitimate pulse on reality versus a snot nosed analyst barely out of grad school telling us what the oil ''bidness'' is going to do ... It simply boils down to this: Either you believe we are in a new paradigm in oil commodity prices and demand models ...discounting demand from Asian, Eastern European or 3rd World Industrialization and economic recovery near term, or you at least believe that the major E&P companies will dramatically cut projects to the extent of seriously impacting the driller and service stocks OR, you believe the dayrates and utilization as just announced by PKD and the actions of Long Time Oilmen like XTO's CEO and believe the reality based supply statistic's based on more logical and historic parameters... here is a post from Yahoo's FLC board...interesting perspective : messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com Many of the supply and demand statistic parameters used by the Oil Bears - are not fair comparisons. For instance based on historic ''days of use'' in storage, the world is not at historic supply/storage levels as pointed out in posts both here and on the Yahoo boards. The E&P companies must dramatically increase reserves to meet even the most conservative demand models in the near future. We have a history here in which to draw upon. This is not the first, nor is it the last oil crisis. The big money in both the stock market in general and the oil sector specifically; has been made not by chasing the run up, buying at the peak on momentum or trading in and out - trying to time the market. It was and allways will be made by having the guts to step up and buy when everyone else is selling, calling for the demise of the sector, when margin calls are coming like junk mail, when all the news is bad, when short interest is at historic levels, when analysts are downgrading, when earnings estimates are being cut, when PE valuations are being reduced and when posters/investors have ''flipped'' from bull to bear ... sound familiar ?