Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Howarth who wrote (5235)	7/11/1998 11:37:00 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Bob, Well, since you've been ignored a few times...I'll take a stab at some of your questions? I don't know that they'll be satisfying, since individuals that ask those type of questions seem to have very different expectations of the responses. "..where TDFX wants to be in a year to 18 months?...What is the strategic vision of TDFX? " TDFX wants to be the premier 3D graphics core developer (for margin) and the dominant 2D/3D core in OEM PCs (for revenue growth). A significant component to their strategy is Glide (see stockhq.com for more info) and having brand recognition throughout the entire hardware/software chain. IMO, companies such as S3, Nvidia, Intel are largely ignoring the brand recognition at the software end. If TDFX is right, they win some points and revenue. "How can an analysts bring clients into the stock unless this question is clearly answered?" Two different answers depending on how you might mean that question. If you mean that the client needs to know the answer to that question to be brought into the stock, I would disagree. Clients, in general, care nothing more than is it a buy (or strong buy) and what is the share value projection, i.e., $nnn in xx months. The institutional clients may read through the entire analysts report...but the analysts can write a plausible scenario for any outcome one believes, e.g., the shear power, capabilities and pricing strategy Intel will overwhelm the 2D/3D market space...plausible. If you mean that the analysts must know the answer before he recommends a buy recommendation, then I would suggest that the analysts currently already know where TDFX wants to be in 12-18 months. It's a question of do the analysts believe that TDFX can execute and what profits are to be had in the market. The market "analysis" for the sector in general has a very poor outlook, perhaps merely because the SOX index is so low. There seems to be a general consensus that the market, while growing very large, is highly competitive with rapidly decreasing margins. Unsure of who the winners will be, if any, other than Intel....well maybe not Intel...I would agree that if Intel wanted to accomplish nearly anything in chip computing capability they could, but graphics is out of their core business and businesses have a habit of exiting out of non-core businesses if they don't succeed fairly early on. (IMHO) "Do they plan to grow into a much larger company, and what related businesses / markets do they want to leverage their brand to offer products in?" The question begs a "Yes" or "No"....Sorry, won't give you that <g>. What I do believe is that TDFX wants to expand into the OEM market which, if successful, could result in much larger revenue. If I get selective in the OEM market, targeted at the business market space, then the revenue stream would likely be significantly larger and they would conceivably have better margins, than in the PCs one would find at Best Buy. There was a hint in an interview (sorry, I've forgotten which one) where someone from TDFX in talking about Banshee pointed to the benefits of 2D performance in the context of business applications such as Powerpoint. This doesn't necessarily exclude the general market. Postscript. All the boards are going to sell to some degree and in certain market spaces. I don't believe that I've seen anywhere a clear understanding of all the market spaces, the sizes of each, or the drivers for each. To illustrate a few. There are groups of people or business that will weigh 2D performance, price and 3D performance in that order; for them a Banshee board seems to be the better choice; another "niche" might be 3D performance, 2D performance and price...looks like (right now, but there seems to be a question regarding the test and whether the extra graphics feature was tunred off and how this might effect performance, i.e., one pass rendering) Savage is the better choice; a niche of 3D performance (including or not including Glide support), 2D performance and cost is not a factor may pick a different product(s); and then there are the folks that walk into Best Buy are confused and don't have a clue what components they are buying, probably "Intel inside" looks good to them. Now what is the precise size of each market? I sure as hell don't know. I fit in the first group, so I'm buying a Banshee board. No one is a winner (or a loser) because of one press release for OEM support or a positive review released yesterday. One can project (or guess might be more appropriate) who the winners will be, but I'll suggest that come Xmas you'll have a decent idea who they are...but then again they'll be a whole new wave of updated drivers...new products...just about to be released new products...and the arguments will start over again...we'll throw competing 10Qs at each other...refers share performance...have shorts post bogus acquisition rumors or below estimated earnings...and we'll all have read through 12,456 posts not knowing relatively much more than we know now....Kind of makes me want to buy a S&P500 index fund. Best Regards, Jim

To: Bob Howarth who wrote (5235)	7/11/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: Rob Mannel	Respond to of 16960

<<Could you guys apply your abilities to explaining where TDFX wants to be in a year to 18 months? >> 3DFX wants to be the #1 selling 3D and 2D/3D chipsets in market place. They hope to do this not through hyping their products, but by making the best performing chipsets and hoping the market comes around. They seem to have done a fairly good job of this with the Voodoo and Voodoo II chipsets and may have a good chance with Voodoo Banshee. They would like also to see Glide as the #1 3D API in the market, but that is questionable with D3D 6.0 coming out.