To: Anthony Wong who wrote (521 ) 7/11/1998 6:11:00 PM From: Mazman Respond to of 1722
Managers Look To Drugs For Extra Growth New Products, Demographics Should Continue Fueling Profits July 13, 1998 by GLORIA LAU Investor's Business Daily (part 1 of 2) Some health-care stocks may have performed poorly last year, but don't let that scare you. The industry's shares have rebounded about 30% since Jan. 1. IBD spoke with managers of some top-ranked funds who look to these sectors for near-term growth. What are they excited about? Three key areas are the big drug makers, medical device firms and HMOs. Of these segments, drug shares have been strongest this year. IBD's Medical-Drug/Diversified group - including American Home Products, Warner-Lambert and Bristol-Myers Squibb -is up 34%. (The other areas, medical devices and HMOs, will be the focus of Part 2 of this series Tuesday.) With the baby boomers in middle age, the drug group has much to offer, the managers say. ''To make money on drug companies, you don't have to wait 50 years for those boomers to retire,'' said John Schroer of Invesco Strategic Health Sciences Fund. ''When do you get your first cholesterol test?'' Schroer asked. ''When you're 40. When do you develop your first ulcer, take your first anti-depressants and your first anti-anxiety pills? When you're 40. Not when you're 20 or 60. Boomers are hitting this sweet spot.'' Schroer sees drug industry earnings continuing to grow 15% to 20% a year. His fund has 60% of its $1.1 billion in assets invested in drug companies. The fund holds an A+ ranking from IBD, meaning its 36-month total return of 120% beat 95% of all funds. Schroer's sweet spot is backed up by industry data. Between ages 45 and 54, Americans spend an average of $390 a year on drugs, vs. just $275 spent by those who are 35 to 44. Managed-care companies' push to reduce spending also has favored drug use over costly surgeries. Blood thinners, for instance, have prevented 40,000 strokes a year, saving $600 million. The industry's full product pipeline is the second reason for optimism, Schroer notes. Among the companies he likes are Warner-Lambert, which rolled out Rezulin in late '97. The drug treats gradual onset diabetes, which affects people over 40. It brought in $420 million in sales last year and should do $700 million this year, Schroer says. Another holding is Pfizer. It developed the anti-impotence drug Viagra, which achieved $411 million in its first quarter on the market. Schroer also likes SmithKline Beecham, which is expected to launch Avandia for diabetes in '99. Costa Mesa, Calif.-based ICN Pharmaceuticals also meets Schroer's requirements. The stock has been undervalued, he says, since some investors avoided it due to CEO Milan Panic's past tangles with regulators. But in mid-June, ICN's hepatitis C drug, Rebetron, won Food and Drug Administration approval. ICN licensed the drug to Schering- Plough and will get as much as a 20% royalty. Others predict the success of drug firms will lead to cross-sector feeding frenzies. Beso Sikharulidze, who runs Fidelity Select Health Care Portfolio , expects medical product makers, drug distributors and clinical research firms to benefit from drug approvals. His $2.2 billion-in-assets fund also has an A+ rating by IBD. Its 36-month total return was 131%. ''Strength in pharmaceuticals and everything related to pharmaceuticals'' will grow, he said. Still, the Fidelity manager keeps his eyes on the possible long-term risks of managed care cost-cutting. If drug companies can't cover the high costs of drug development, they lose incentive to find and make new medications. Warner-Lambert is the Fidelity fund's largest holding, at nearly 11% of assets. In all, 84% of his fund's assets are in health care. (C) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily, Inc.