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To: William JH who wrote (14397)	7/11/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Giraffe	Respond to of 116762

Base metals stage slight recovery By John Labate Base metals recovered slightly in late trading but oil prices edged lower, ending a week of generally weaker prices in commodities ahead of tomorrow's election in Japan. Copper prices firmed to $1,602 a tonne in late afternoon trade on the London Metal Exchange, rebounding after reaching a new 12-year low of $1,583 early in the session before buyers stepped in. Weakness in the market early Friday followed a weak session on Thursday. Aside from uncertainties about economic reforms in Japan, the market has also been hit by speculation of possibly worsening demand as the US economy slows in the second quarter, as many analysts expect. While much of the slackening demand from Asia this year has been offset by firm US demand in the first quarter, the worry in the market now is that a sharp US slowdown could put renewed pressures on demand for copper and other metals later in the year. Other metals managed similar, if unspectacular, improvements on the day. Zinc prices rose to $1,040, off their highs of the session, while Aluminium gained $3 on the day to $1,289. Gold and Silver prices ended lower, despite a slight improvement of the yen against the dollar. Late in the London session the yen/ dollar rate was at 140.87. That wasn't enough to keep gold from falling to $290.65. For the coming week the dollar yen exchange rate and the outcome of the Japanese elections should be dominant factors for gold prices. Silver also weakened yesterday, to $5.30. Oil prices were mixed earlier in the week as the market continued to be hit by supply worries. On Friday IPE Brent futures touched a new intra-day low just above $13, before prices firmed a bit later in the session. "The uncertainty of supply from Nigeria is going to be with us for a while," said Peter Gignoux, manager of the petroleum desk at Salomon Smith Barney in London. "We're still in an oversupply mode, and it will get worse before it gets better."

To: William JH who wrote (14397)	7/11/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: Giraffe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

ASIA: Demand for rice and other cereals to surge By Justin Marozzi in Manila South Asia will experience the strongest demand for rice and other cereals over the next two decades, according to the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), the world's leading centre for rice research. The IRRI, which yesterday launched a new three-year plan to sustain food security and combat poverty and malnutrition in the first quarter of the next century, said demand for rice would be greatest in areas where poverty and malnutrition are pervasive. Rice represents up to 60 per cent of daily calorie intake in South Asia, IRRI said. Total demand for cereals in Asia will jump 30 per cent by 2010, while per capita availability of water is expected to decline by 40-60 per cent in most of the region's countries. "It's a formidable challenge," said Robert Havener, IRRI's director-general. "In the next 25 years, the population of planet earth will increase by 2bn. The bulk of that will be in Asia and most of them will be Asian rice consumers. The extent to which we can feed these new mouths depends on our ability to grow more rice largely on existing land." IRRI said depreciation of regional currencies following the regional financial crisis will lead to rising food prices and erosion of purchasing power among lower income groups. In Indonesia, for example, food insecurity is already visible, despite 30 years of 3 per cent annual growth in rice yields. "Political sensitivity of increasing food prices may induce Asian governments to be less receptive to trade liberalisation, particularly for staple food items," said the IRRI. The IRRI plan, which consisted of seven new research programmes and 31 projects, centred on maintaining global food security, improving management of natural resources essential for food production, and conserving the environment. IRRI said it will work more closely with farmers' groups, non-governmental organisations, national governments' agricultural research programmes and the private sector. Together with its partner countries, IRRI is working on new high-yielding rice varieties it thought would raise yields by 20-30 per cent and be ready within five years. El Ni¤o, which devastated the farm sectors of several Asian countries, highlighted the difficult trade-offs between the use of water for urban, industrial and agricultural needs. "Clearly, agriculture in Asia will have to be more efficient because it will have less water," said Mr Havener. The institute also released details of a review of IRRI by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, which praised its scientific achievements.

To: William JH who wrote (14397)	7/12/1998 6:36:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 116762

I didn't write down the post number but hope you read Goldsnow's comments re timing the gold market.. If you are patient,even if there is a final washout,in the fullness of time you should be rewarded.. At this point,I have stopped(almost) guessing what the catalyst will be.. I for one am not comfortable with heavy derivatives out there.. I definitely think there are enough weak links in the year2000 problem that there will be panics..(a lot of my friends won't be flying in the beginning of 1999 and definitely in the beginning of 2000..these are former mainframe programmers :>) Am patiently waiting to see news about producer's hedging.. It would seem that Munk of Barrick must have pleased as punch with the Central Bankers and with his hedging,he was probably patiently waiting like a cat for mouse to swoop up cheaper assets and like a human,waiting for competitors to go bankrupt.. bobby