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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: llamaphlegm who wrote (10047)	7/11/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

To be fair, Benji did post that bullsh-t about not changing his "bu" rec but also suggesting taking profits by selling 50% of any amzn holdings, and 1/4 each of aol and yhoo. So he may talk out of both sides of his mouth, but he's not stupid. llamaph, I never accused him of being stupid. I do accuse him of hyping and entire sector with no numbers to really back up his projections. The web site internet.com was started specifically for hyping. Glenn

To: llamaphlegm who wrote (10047)	7/12/1998 12:44:00 AM
From: umbro	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

LP, yeah I was probably a little rough on Benji, but I don't think he'd have been accused of poor judgment, if he'd downgraded AMZN to "sell on price basis". After all, the stock traded as high as his high side target times three. Or, he could upgrade his target, and keep the buy rec. But what would that target be? We assume if the rec. is buy, then target is higher than the current price, no? What would be the justification, say for a $150 target? Only that earnings are growing faster than expected (ie, much faster that +50% per year), or that margins are improving, or that sales are growing faster than expected. But instead sales growth is dropping (we'll know for sure in a couple of weeks). Maybe the rumored EGGS acquisition will go through, and maybe that's what the 5 mil. shares have been set aside for. They're both WA based companies, and there's synergy (enough), and a lot of costs can be swept under the acquisition rug. It'll be interesting to see how AMZN's stock is valued, maybe the median price over the last 6 months (I'd guess 60) or something like that. I don't know how they'd throw stock in the deal, and still make it a pooling of interests though. Right now (after the run up from 9 to 24 in the past week/so), EGGS is trading at 2x sales with a mkt. cap. of 500 mil. Maybe the EGGS shareholders would take a 50% premium over that, and their stock price would be valued at $35. Using some rough numbers, 2 EGGS shares for one AMZN, might make it interesting, but that would value EGGS at 2.3 bil. mkt cap, on 293 mil. in sales. Doesn't make sense to me. It is interesting the low premium placed on other retailers on the net. Microwarehouse 2.15 Bil. in sales, and is valued at a PSR much less than one, 0.25 in fact, with a market cap. 500 mil. No debt, and $100 mil. in cash ($3/share, on a $20 stock). Trading at a PE of 18, and growing earnings at 19% (projected) MWHS looks like a good deal. The only thing I can think of that might help AMZN's margins would be for it vertically integrate, by perhaps buying one of the private companies (B&T or Ingram) that it gets its books from. That might be seen as good news, but it puts AMZN squarely on the map as a bookseller.