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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jach who wrote (15000)7/12/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: The Phoenix  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
Jach,

First - congrats on post #15000!

However,
You need to due a bit more dd on this one.

The LAN switch mkt is now very competitive and totally unlike 2 qtrs ago with many GB startups and BAY and 3COm with their strong products (note that it is very easy to get a foot-hold in Enterprise level also and unlike core routers or large telco-based switches).

You make comment that Cisco's growth is mainly due to growth in LAN switching (at least in Q3) and go on to say that due to competitive products that we shouldn't expect Cisco to continue their growth. Let's look at Cisco's activities this quarter.

biz.yahoo.com (8500 new campus switch)
biz.yahoo.com (New high density fast ethernet cards for 5500)
biz.yahoo.com (Internet infrastructure and carrier class voice quality over packet)
biz.yahoo.com (voice/fax card on 5300)
biz.yahoo.com (w/ HP Usage based billing platform)
biz.yahoo.com (!!! End to end Cable environments!!!)
biz.yahoo.com (more on cable)
biz.yahoo.com (cable - it's real...announcement with @Home)
biz.yahoo.com (Cisco/Dell/USWest...ADSL)
biz.yahoo.com (AS5800 and Hong Kong Tel.)
biz.yahoo.com (WHAT's THIS? Cisco purchasing land for expansion???)
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com (SLEW of DSL stuff)
biz.yahoo.com (new Enterprise G/W)
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com (Cisco's new IP+ATM switches
biz.yahoo.com (SPRINT)

Geezz.. I got to June and I'm tired of looking. You'll have to do the rest of the DD yourself. My point is that Cisco's product line is so broad (Cable, xDSL, IP telephony, Enterprise, Carrier, etc. etc..) that they are insulated from downturns in any one sector. So let's assume that you're right (which I don't believe you are) that COMS and BAY have gained market share on Cisco in the Enterprise LAN Switching space, I don't believe this will be material. BUT, given the enhancements that Cisco continually makes on these products I seriously doubt that COMS and BAY have had the success you seem to think they do. While COMS and BAY are trying to build product Cisco is busily differentiating their LAN switches to include multiservice technologies such as real time voice. Cisco is well ahead of the game here.

I should point out that I was at Supercom and visited both the Cisco and BAY booths (COMS was a joke). Bay had a voice demo which sounded like technology companies were developing 4 years ago. Furthermore the folks that I talked to in the booth didn't have a clue. Cisco on the other hand had two booths - one completely devoted to multiservice (Voice on IP, FR, and ATM). The technology appeared to be VERY mature.

looking at insiders trading, no buying -
biz.yahoo.com


Jach, I'm sure you know better than this...... Cisco employees get so much stock that they need to divest out of it - not purchase more. All you'll see on that web site are excersice of options and selling of options.

Gary