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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (1397)	7/12/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: Amelia Carhartt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1911

ahhaha: You may get your wish regarding a California quake as historically a serious quake has struck the Pacific coast nearly every time there has been an el nino. Reason: gillions of pounds of added water pressure on the fragile Pacific shelf. Gads, can you imagine, Y2k and a colossal quake in the same time frame? It's a little late to save "chain saw Al" but I think I'll start stocking up on Coleman lanterns and a stove.

To: ahhaha who wrote (1397)	7/12/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: Vieserre	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1911

I share your views. I do not think at any time, there are clear paths to the market - either on an economic basis, where so many "reputed" economists are so often wrong, on a technical basis, which always is more clairvoyant in hindsight, or on a gold-analysis basis which even though one could be right, substantial sums may be lost if wrong in timing. At this stage of gold equity behavior, we are in the voting stage and any attempt to predict market price on a fundamental basis is deemed foolish - and a trader is better heeding the technical trend rather than being a hero and fighting it. Markets can go a lot further in either direction than one reasonably anticipates. But, as you know, it is also important to have a plan and a plausible reason for gold to go up such that when technically, gold for some unknown and inexplicable reason takes on a better tone, to be ready to implement the plan no matter how difficult it may be to do so as logic and instincts may dictate otherwise. My own view, and I admit that I am probably wrong, is that although it presently looks bleak, there is a reasonable chance that gold will make a bottom this month in preparation for yr end strength. I conclude this for a number of reasons, technically as well as fundamentally. But, my greatest reason is that, as you have commented on, when a market is so one-sided for such an extended period with a consensus that it is going a lot lower, that when all media attention is given to the decline and no one has the courage to print anything positive, that when gold funds are indiscriminately dumping, that when gold-site web commentators throw in the towel, and when in general the market psychology is so over-whelmingly negative - by then almost all sellers, except those with conviction on the longer term, should have sold and the pendulum has been driven about as far over as the market forces can make it swing. It usually is then the pendulum stalls and starts a reverse course. From what I have seen looking at charts, gold tends to 12-month lead rather than lag, events which induce it to reverse in trend. And I see many such potential events in place. For example, the present Japanese election crisis could be viewed positively as well as negatively. The election results may spur more agressive stimulent counter measures than would otherwise have been taken which will signficantly contribute to inflation - and as discussed, inflationary forces are in place in the US economy and further delays to contain it may be effected in view of global concerns. The election may also engender a quick steep selling wave - which I would construe constructive. Still further, serious global events are happening that may be beyond the control of governing bodies - which may lead to serious economic and financial instability. In any event, I believe the upcoming weeks with the expected election scare may provide a good indication of the future direction of gold. If gold fails to drop significantly in price - or drops, and then rebounds - or if the gold equities show superior relative strength. It is one thing. If gold makes significant new lows on a weekly basis - or if the equities fall apart. Hell, I do not where it will stop and all bets are off. But regardless, I have entrenched a LT plan that I am most comfortable with and which, unless conditions occur that are not yet manifested, I intend stick to. The lower gold goes, more forces come into play to increase the probability of a recovery. And I am not looking for pie in the sky 400+ gold, a much, much more modest amount will more than double the stock price of many - as gold stocks, just as any other, are driven by greed - as well as fear. Unfortunately, as a counter, when markets have been hit such as gold and when a lot of participants have been hurt as a result of the decline, markets tend to stay down for some time before gathering sufficient support to resume an uptrend. But as a rebuttal to a rebuttal, the technical forces in place may be all that is needed for an ignition and fuel at lift-off. Unfortunately, being in the market, I may only be seeing what I wish to see. Vieserre