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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nord who wrote (5528)	7/12/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Doug	Respond to of 18016

Noredn: For the longs, the OBV,STO,RSI and Momentum all look good. Once the 50 day ema crosses we may see some real action.

To: nord who wrote (5528)	7/13/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Mark Kubisz	Respond to of 18016

>>Since then most days the trading >>of NN has had intraday acceleration >>in volume....many days in the 1-400% range Can you please explain that, and tell how you arrive at that conclusion?

To: nord who wrote (5528)	7/19/1998 5:26:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Hello Nord, I apologize for the late reply. Work and earnings season is keeping me rather busy. First let my say that I believed fundmental news can over come technical analysis.I don't trade purely on the technicals. I try to have a good understanding of the fundamentals too. That said,I am afraid I agree with Jeff Steinberg from a technical analysis perspective. The OBV has a positive slope but the slope is rather shallow so the there is buying pressure to the positive side but it is not great. There appear to be more long than shorts from this perspective. The stochasitc 14-3-3 is in the oversold territory which is a positive. On the negative side the MACD 5-21-12 just gave a sell signal Friday. 9 day RSI is in the mid-range with a downward bais. Bloomberg money flow which tracks the number of trades at the ASK versus the BID is flat. The price action remains is a down trend within the bear channel. I agree that the lack of follow through on July 8 when it rose above 25 on volume is a negative. It failure to hold its break of the upper trend line leaves the stock vunerable of a re-test of the next lower support level at 21 1/2. The tight trading range and the low volume indicates a certain amout in indecision as to the direction of the price of NN. The fundamentals support a downward move. There is strong support at 21 1/2 though. So the downside is limited. Overall NN is range bound with a slight negative bias. From a fundamental point of view, NN needs to win a large ATM contract with an RBOC to get the price moving again. They have been criticized for having a low level of RFP wins in the United States. This is reflected in their DSO which is above 90 days. Most of the contracts are in foreign markets where the accounts receivables are left unpaid longer. It might also reflect NN selling to less credit worthy customers. If I remember the figures right just under 50 percent of all spending on telecommunications in done in North America in dollar terms. To gain credibility NN needs a major North American design win with the bulk of the installation happening within a short time frame. Lutz has starts a new agressive sales campaign. This will effect margins for the next few Q's as there is a lag between submitting a RFP and actually shipping equipment that will put something on the bottom line. The analyst should give NN a few Q's to implement this new strategy,but NN must meet their esitmates to keep the institutions in this stock. They need to improve the linearity of their Q's. Right now it is 25, 25, 50, This means they don't know if they have made their number till the very last week. The fact that TDM is seeing some improvement, if the analyst's report someone post is accurate, should help NN meet their numbers. Harry