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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (216)	7/19/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Respond to of 972

Richard, Barron's GMI was 362.34 on 7/16, up slightly from 358.39 last week. With the POG also up slightly at 293.80 the ratio continues at 1.23. The indicator is quite bullish; though it only has long-term significance. Perhaps, as you suggest, your frustration is a good contrary indicator. Cheers, Larry

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (216)	7/27/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Richard, Barron's GMI was 354.98 on 7/23, down from 362.34 last week. With the POG also up slightly at 294.60 (7/24) the ratio dropped to 1.205. I believe this is the lowest it been since you started this thread and is therefore the most bullish; though it may only be of long-term significance. However, there are a lot of projections for gold and the XAU that suggest that the ratio may have to get even lower before it turns up meaningfully. I notice that there isn't any activity on this thread these days but I will continue to post the ratio for a few more weeks anyhow on the assumption that you and some lurkers are interested. For whatever it is worth, in Armstrong's latest WCMR, he is relatively bearish on both gold (sees 245 or even 192 as possible) and silver. He is bullish on the dollar. He seems to see the low for gold occurring in the first half of the year 2000. However, his projections are of the "if this then this" variety and it seems to me that silver has already moved to the point where he would say that there is an increased likelihood that it will move up significantly. I also noted that Auger is saying that, while the XAU may rise to about 76 during the next 2 or 3 weeks, it will then head down sharply towards 35 by the end of September. My initial thought was that Auger's view was consistent with Armstrong's view but I'm not so sure. To be consistent, gold would have to remain close to its low for most of the rest of 98 and all of 99. In any event, I see to many uncertainties in the world today to put very much stock in any projection. To me the most interesting of Armstrong's latest comments is the observation that the EURO will be an index. He is referring to the fact that it will not exist as a medium of exchange until 2002. Until then, the existing currencies will continue to circulate with each being a defined fraction of a EURO. You can't buy oil with an index. Cheers, Larry